US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
Dec 13, 2027even chance by
- October 316%
- November 3038%
- December 3167%▲ 11
Install
US tariff revenue for 2026
The odds
$274.19median
$60$350
Median $274.19
How the odds have moved
Median: $274.60 on Oct 20, $274.19 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $80 billion | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 76.00 | |
| Above $100 billion | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 170 | |
| Above $125 billion | 92% | 88¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 384 | |
| Above $150 billion | 91% | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.1K | |
| Above $200 billion | 78% | 73¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 5.0K | |
| Above $250 billion | 65% | 60¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 3.7K | |
| Above $300 billion | 34% | 29¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 6.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: tariffs, tariff
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White House official addresses inflation and tariff concernsNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett joins 'The Sunday Briefing' to discuss the impact of the administration's economic policies, inflation and tariffs. White House official addresses inflation and tariff concerns National… -
Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port MilwaukeeSacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how President Trump's tariffs have affected the flow of goods and impacted the regional economy. Trade tariffs cause whiplash at Port Milwaukee Sacha Pfeiffer visits Port Milwaukee to see how… -
Audi defends plans for a $4 billion Georgia plant amid VW restructuring, tariffsDETROIT — Audi's CEO defended the carmaker's plans for a new $4 billion plant in Georgia on Sunday, calling it a business decision aimed at growing sales and reducing exposure to U.S. tariffs. The plant, set to be Audi's first in the U.S… -
Small businesses struggling with inflation amid Trump tariffs ahead of midtermsWBZ News Weekend 6pm CBS News Chicago Saturday 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm KDKA News Saturday 6pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… - A stinky cheese tariffBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Smoot-Hawley was bad…
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White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian importsCNBC's Eamon Javers reports on new tariffs that have been added to some Canadian imports after the White House removed tariffs that were affecting Maine. White House adds new tariffs on some Canadian imports -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks… -
Obama rips Trump for tariffs and White House renovations as he touts El-Sayed in DetroitBarack Obama ripped and ridiculed President Trump at a Detroit rally Saturday night — where he vouched for Abdul El-Sayed, despite the lefty Michigan Democratic Senate candidate’s past criticism of him. The former president took on Trump… -
White House says the US is lifting tariffs on some Canadian goodsThe US is lifting some of its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, with the White House saying on Friday it was working to "protect the economic prosperity and national security of the American people". The exemptions could also boost Republican… -
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions