Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 10:05 PM ET · $171 today · $19.1K traded · $10.4K at stake

Settled Between 1% and 4%A day before, traders had a median of 9.48%

The last odds before it closed

2.57%median
  • ✓ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%97%▲ 2
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4%7%▼ 85
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7%3%▼ 77
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥8%3%▼ 64
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥10%3%▼ 43
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13%3%▼ 15
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥16%3%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.62% on Oct 20, 2.57% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% 97% 19.3K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4% 7% 867
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% 3% 771
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥8% 3% 353
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥10% 3% 8.9K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13% 3% 2.8K
✗ Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥16% 3% 1.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Flávio Bolsonaro, Tocantins

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions