Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Kalshi Economy › Housing Closes May 31, 2027 · $3K today · $42.8K traded · $6.4K at stake · prices read 63 min ago

The odds

1,497median

8001,850

Median 1,497

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 950 units	98%		97¢	98¢	$1.02	10.9K
Above 1,100 units	98%		97¢	98¢	$1.02	3.9K
Above 1,250 units	92%	▲ 6	91¢	93¢	$1.08	10.7K
Above 1,400 units	69%	▲ 11	67¢	70¢	$1.43	19.0K
Above 1,550 units	40%	▼ 10	48¢	62¢	$1.61	1.2K
Above 1,700 units	40%	▼ 1	24¢	39¢	$2.56	12.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Bozeman-area

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NYC median asking rent in December 2026

$3,994median

$3,700$4,600

Median $3,994Middle half $3,931 – $4,080

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Colorado permitted housing units in 2026

31,556median

28,00040,000

Median 31,556

Economy › Housing

Housing units authorized in Vermont in 2026

1,824median

1,5002,700

Median 1,824Middle half 1,702 – 2,068

Economy › Housing

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

68%↑ 7.50%

Reaches 7.5%68%

Falls to 6.5%16%
Falls to 6.25%14%

Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%

Economy › Housing

Will Utah's House Price Index exceed 722.63 in Q4 2026?

51%chance

Economy › Housing

US building permits for September (September 2026)

1.41median

1.201.60

Median 1.41Middle half 1.37 – 1.47

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Census Bureau

Trading closesMay 31, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$42.8K (57,921 contracts)

Today$3K

This week$42.8K

At stake$6.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 950 units, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.