Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
How many bills will President Trump sign in Oct 2026?
The odds
34%At least 20
1731
How the odds have moved
At least 20: 69% on Oct 20, 34% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETAt least 20: 71% → 35%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETAt least 20: 77% → 61%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 10 | 99% | ▲ 1 | $1.01 | 4.2K | ||
| ✓ At least 12 | 99% | ▲ 13 | $1.01 | 2.7K | ||
| ✓ At least 14 | 99% | ▲ 13 | $1.01 | 2.5K | ||
| ✓ At least 16 | 99% | ▲ 5 | $1.01 | 2.0K | ||
| ✓ At least 18 | 94% | ▲ 13 | $1.06 | 3.3K | ||
| At least 20 | 34% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 2.2K |
| At least 22 | 34% | ▲ 1 | 29¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 81.00 |
| At least 24 | 32% | ▲ 2 | 27¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.00 |
| At least 26 | 28% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 310 |
| At least 28 | 18% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 438 |
| At least 30 | 12% | ▼ 4 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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How is the US economy really doing under President Trump?President Donald Trump has been boasting about the performance of the US economy ahead of the midterm congressional elections, claiming he has boosted incomes, reduced inflation and created jobs. Trump has repeatedly said: "We have the… -
President Trump defends Russia sanctions waiverU.S. Army Maj. Gen. James 'Spider' Marks discusses President Donald Trump's role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict on 'America Reports.' ... President Trump defends Russia sanctions waiver U.S. Army Maj. Gen. James 'Spider' Marks discusses… -
GOP Senator: 'Putin is playing President Trump like a fiddle'President Trump is open to a Ukraine war summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinpingâbut has no plans to include Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The decision drew sharp pushback from GOP Senator Thom Tillis, who hosted a call with the Ukrainian… -
WATCH LIVE: President Trump speaks at Kansas campaign rallyPresident Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the Heartland Credit Union Arena in Wichita, Kansas. WATCH LIVE: President Trump speaks at Kansas campaign rally President Trump delivers remarks during a campaign rally at the… -
President Trump heads to Kansas to campaign for Sen Roger MarshallSen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., discusses his Senate race as President Donald Trump heads to Kansas to campaign for him on 'America Reports.' President Trump heads to Kansas to campaign for Sen Roger Marshall Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan… -
Polls show Latino voters moving away from President TrumpCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Polls show Latino voters… -
President Trump proposes lifting sanctions on Russia to negotiate peace in UkraineDonald Trump proposes waiving sanctions on Russia to negotiate peace in the Ukraine war, raising questions about global energy markets and domestic fuel prices. White House correspondent Edward Lawrence reports on the proposal while former… -
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy criticizes President Trump’s decision to suspend new sanctions on RussiaCNBCâs Eamon Javers reports on the latest development in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraineâs Zelenskyy criticizes President Trumpâs decision to suspend new sanctions on Russia -
President Trump to visit Port Huron for campaign rally, city officials sayUpdated on: October 19, 2026 / 8:11 AM EDT / CBS Detroit President Trump will be in Southeast Michigan on Sunday for a rally on behalf of Republican candidates ahead of the Nov. 3 election. The City of Port Huron has announced separately… -
President Trump waives Russia sanctions as Vladimir Putin floats Ukraine summitRussia launches massive infrastructure attacks as President Donald Trump waives economic sanctions, prompting former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman to analyze national security stakes. Hoffman discusses Vladimir Putin floating a Ukraine… -
Massapequa asks President Trump for executive order protecting Native American school mascotsJuly 25, 2025 / 8:35 PM EDT / CBS New York A Long Island school district is asking for President Trump's help in their fight to keep their team name and mascot — the Massapequa Chiefs. The New York State Board of Regents voted to ban… -
BBC Audio | Start the Week | Napoleon’s marshals and President Trump’s civil servantsRebels in the Deep State, his account of the civil servants who found themselves resisting attempts by the Trump administration to dismantle parts of the American state. He asks what happens when ... Napoleon’s marshals and President…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.