Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
19.95%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 19.95%Middle half 19.86% – 20.04%
Install
Anthropic market share this week (Anthropic market share - Oct 19, 2026)
The odds
5.21%median
3.3%6.8%
Median 5.21%Middle half 5.1% – 5.32%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.97% on Oct 20, 5.21% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.7% | 100% | 99¢ | 4.2K | |||
| Above 4.1% | 100% | 99¢ | 5.7K | |||
| Above 4.4% | 100% | 99¢ | 2.7K | |||
| Above 4.6% | 100% | 99¢ | 4.2K | |||
| Above 4.7% | 100% | 99¢ | 9.6K | |||
| Above 4.8% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 15.8K | ||
| Above 4.9% | 97% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | $1.03 | 17.7K | |
| Above 5.0% | 97% | ▲ 16 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 18.9K |
| Above 5.4% | 6% | ▼ 10 | 10¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 34.6K |
| Above 6.1% | 2% | ▼ 4 | 3¢ | $33.33 | 21.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude
Search ›-
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Anthropic’s people products head on the recruiter’s evolving role and how Claude can helpDuring a keynote at HR Tech 2026, Boufford and Tim Sackett, CEO of HRUTech.com, explored how conversational AI tools could change the work involved in hiring. Their discussion put recruiting process design at the centre of the case for… - Thariq Leaves Anthropic After More Than a Year Working on Claude CodeHe plans to take a break before starting something new and did not name his next destination. Thariq announced Saturday, Oct. 24, that he had left Anthropic after more than a year working on Claude Code, the company's coding tool. He said…
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Elvis Presley Rightsholders Sue Anthropic for Training on 274 Songs Without PermissionBillboard first reported that Authentic Brands Group, the licensing group that controls the King’s music and likeness, filed its lawsuit Friday, alleges that Anthropic — the AI giant behind Claude — infringed on the rights of 274 of… -
Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.October 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's… -
Anthropic Sued For Stealing Elvis Presley Music to Train AI: ‘Deeply Protective of These Iconic Songs’The owners of The King's IP are cracking down on the tech giant, adding one of music's most legendary figures to the massive legal battle over AI music. The new lawsuit, filed Friday (Oct. 23) and first reported by Billboard, claims that… -
Claude Mythos 5 Kept Pursuing Malicious GitHub Attack Even After Signs of Real-World Harm, Anthropic FindsAnthropic's investigation into Claude Mythos 5 has found that the AI model continued a malicious GitHub attack after its legitimate cybersecurity challenge routes failed, even creating fake identities to persuade real developers to approve… -
Claude Ships MCP Tasks and Elicitations in Claude Code — Durable Agent Workflows, Narrow LaunchDurable jobs and mid-task consent now run inside the Claude Code CLI on three surfaces — while VS Code, desktop, Bedrock and the rest of the Claude product line wait on a roadmap line. The agent economy, every morning. Blair Hayes Agent… - Elon’s $100B AI Bet, Anthropic’s Claude Duet, and the PHP Flaw Hiding in 70% of the Web | EP #305｜Peter DiamandisBlundin framed the earnings call itself as a governance lesson: the techno-visionary CEO speaking off-script, in the mold of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg with Sheryl Sandberg, and Alex Karp at Palantir. "Most of your lawyers are…
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Claudio: run Claude Code as a serviceClaude Code lives in a terminal. That is fine until you want to start a chat from your phone, check on an agent that is still working while you are away from the desk, or run five of them in parallel without losing track of which one needs… -
How to run multiple Claude accounts at once (Desktop + Claude Code), and why the obvious hacks breakDisclosure up front: I build Claude Sessions Pro, a paid app for Mac and Windows that does this. Most of this post is the free way to do it yourself, plus what I learned about why the DIY versions misbehave. The app gets one short section… -
Two Claude Code accounts, one Terminal.Guide · Updated 22 October 2026 · By the makers of Claude Sessions Pro Run Claude Code signed in to your work account in one tab and your personal account in the next. Anthropic documents the method; here it is with the details. Free…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%
- Anthropic8%▼ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Dec 7, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
- December 31, 202753%▼ 7
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
65%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3165%▼ 10
- October 2719%▲ 7
- October 294%▼ 1
11 more
- October 264%▲ 2
- October 283%
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%
- October 251%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 15, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3136%▲ 12
- December 3195%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.