Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? (Before Jan 1, 2028)

Kalshi Politics › Trump administration Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $2 today · $1.3K traded · $393 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

Oct 15, 2027even chance by
  • Before Jan 1, 202714%▲ 2
  • Before Apr 1, 202733%▲ 1
  • Before Jul 1, 202742%
  • Before Jan 1, 202856%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027 14% ▲ 2 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 3.8K
Before Apr 1, 2027 33% ▲ 1 31¢ 34¢ $2.94 2.3K
Before Jul 1, 2027 42% 38¢ 46¢ $2.17 24.00
Before Jan 1, 2028 56% 52¢ 60¢ $1.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Department of War

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.