Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Oct 20, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202714%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202727%
- Before Jul 1, 202741%
1 more
- Before Jan 1, 202856%
Install
Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban? (Before Apr 1, 2027)
The odds
42%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202728%
- Before Apr 1, 202742%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 34% on Oct 20, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28% | 29¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 4.2K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 42% | ▲ 2 | 38¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 23.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude
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Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.October 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's… -
Claude Duet app is Anthropic's bet on agentsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The AI world is flooded with personal and productivity-based assistants, with new ones launching every week. Now, Anthropic is entering this battle in the hopes of gaining… -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's… -
Alloy joins Anthropic's Claude Partner NetworkThe Atlanta-based integrated marketing agency builds custom AI tools on Claude for brands and will certify its team through the Anthropic Partner Academy. Atlanta, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alloy, a platform-based integrated… -
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said… -
Anthropic’s people products head on the recruiter’s evolving role and how Claude can helpDuring a keynote at HR Tech 2026, Boufford and Tim Sackett, CEO of HRUTech.com, explored how conversational AI tools could change the work involved in hiring. Their discussion put recruiting process design at the centre of the case for… -
Claude on AWS Bedrock vs Anthropic API: Cost ComparedI am the founder of PromptUnit. This post first appeared on the PromptUnit blog, where it is kept up to date. Anthropic's pricing documentation is explicit that AWS Bedrock and Google Cloud use the same per-token rates as the direct Claude… -
Anthropic’s Formal Verification Research: What Claude ProvedAnthropic’s new formal-verification research makes a serious case for using AI to produce security evidence that a separate mathematical checker can inspect. The work could change how teams establish confidence in critical software… -
Anthropic's Claude now writes code and proves it safe automaticallyAnthropic used Claude to mathematically prove that existing code is correct. The approach tackles a core problem with AI-generated software but comes with strict practical limits. Proving that software runs error-free under all… -
Elvis Presley Rightsholders Sue Anthropic for Training on 274 Songs Without PermissionBillboard first reported that Authentic Brands Group, the licensing group that controls the King’s music and likeness, filed its lawsuit Friday, alleges that Anthropic — the AI giant behind Claude — infringed on the rights of 274 of… -
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5Moonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions