Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
30%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202716%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202830%
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When will Anthropic release a personal AI agent?
The odds
Dec 26, 2026even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20264%▼ 2
- Before Dec 1, 202624%▲ 4
- Before Jan 1, 202757%▲ 10
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 18% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETBefore Nov 1, 2026: 17% → 4%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 327 | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 4% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 3.8K |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 24% | ▲ 4 | 22¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 5.5K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 57% | ▲ 10 | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 3.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Product
Search ›-
Anthropic debuts Claude Duet personal AI agent. Here's what to know.October 23, 2026 / 10:52 AM EDT / CBS News Anthropic has joined the race to develop AI agents that work autonomously on behalf of humans with Claude Duet, a new app it previewed this week. The agent competes with Meta's Muse and OpenAI's… -
Claude Duet app is Anthropic's bet on agentsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The AI world is flooded with personal and productivity-based assistants, with new ones launching every week. Now, Anthropic is entering this battle in the hopes of gaining… -
Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's… -
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said… -
Alloy joins Anthropic's Claude Partner NetworkThe Atlanta-based integrated marketing agency builds custom AI tools on Claude for brands and will certify its team through the Anthropic Partner Academy. Atlanta, Oct. 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Alloy has joined Anthropic's Claude… -
Anthropic’s Formal Verification Research: What Claude ProvedAnthropic’s new formal-verification research makes a serious case for using AI to produce security evidence that a separate mathematical checker can inspect. The work could change how teams establish confidence in critical software… -
Anthropic's Claude now writes code and proves it safe automaticallyAnthropic used Claude to mathematically prove that existing code is correct. The approach tackles a core problem with AI-generated software but comes with strict practical limits. Proving that software runs error-free under all… -
How I Vibe Coded My Smart TV—And Claude Killed It"I have to be straight about my part in this." Every AI user knows and dreads these words. The AI just screwed up, and it’s about to tell me how bad. It all started when I decided to vibe code my TV. People have been vibe-coding their… -
Claude on AWS Bedrock vs Anthropic API: Cost ComparedI am the founder of PromptUnit. This post first appeared on the PromptUnit blog, where it is kept up to date. Anthropic's pricing documentation is explicit that AWS Bedrock and Google Cloud use the same per-token rates as the direct Claude… -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5Moonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained… -
Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO — and more AI newsFrom Anthropicâs upcoming IPO to OpenAIâs funding round that could value the AI giant at more than $1 trillion, CNBCâs Kate Rooney breaks down the headlines in AI this week. Wall Street is awaiting Anthropic's IPO â and more AI news
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%▲ 3
- Anthropic8%▼ 3
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%▼ 1
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
71%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3171%▼ 3
- October 2715%▲ 6
- October 264%
11 more
- October 293%▼ 3
- October 283%
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%▼ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 251%▼ 2
- October 241%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 19, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 241%
2 more
- October 3130%▲ 4
- December 3194%
Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
19.71%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 19.71%Middle half 19.61% – 19.99%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.