Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%▼ 1
- R Senate, D House26%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep8%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
The odds
91%Pete Buttigieg
- Pete Buttigieg91%
- Andy Beshear86%
- Rahm Emanuel84%▼ 1
- J.B. Pritzker82%▼ 1
- Ro Khanna80%
- Gavin Newsom78%
- Josh Shapiro78%
- Wes Moore77%▲ 1
- Cory Booker73%
- Mark Kelly73%▼ 3
- Chris Murphy66%▲ 1
- Kamala Harris65%
26 more
- Chris Van Hollen64%▲ 1
- Mitch Landrieu64%▲ 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez64%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin61%
- Jon Ossoff60%▲ 4
- Raphael Warnock56%▲ 1
- Ruben Gallego46%▼ 1
- Jared Polis38%
- Shawn Fain33%
- Phil Murphy32%
- Gretchen Whitmer30%▲ 1
- Dean Phillips25%▲ 1
- Mikie Sherrill24%
- Stephen A. Smith21%▼ 2
- Abigail Spanberger21%
- Hunter Biden15%▲ 1
- Mark Cuban14%▲ 2
- Roy Cooper13%
- Jon Stewart13%
- John Fetterman12%
- James Talarico11%
- Michelle Obama8%
- Amy Klobuchar7%
- Tim Walz7%
- Barack Obama4%▲ 1
- Hillary Clinton4%
How the odds have moved
Pete Buttigieg: 90% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 91% | 90¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 11.7K | |
| Andy Beshear | 86% | 85¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 7.7K | |
| Rahm Emanuel | 84% | ▼ 1 | 83¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 32.1K |
| J.B. Pritzker | 82% | ▼ 1 | 80¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 16.8K |
| Ro Khanna | 80% | 79¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 38.8K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 78% | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 69.5K | |
| Josh Shapiro | 78% | 76¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 12.1K | |
| Wes Moore | 77% | ▲ 1 | 75¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 63.6K |
| Cory Booker | 73% | 72¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 19.1K | |
| Mark Kelly | 73% | ▼ 3 | 71¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 27.6K |
| Chris Murphy | 66% | ▲ 1 | 64¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 2.4K |
| Kamala Harris | 65% | 64¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 158.6K | |
| Chris Van Hollen | 64% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 9.2K |
| Mitch Landrieu | 64% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 1.7K |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 64% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 160.6K |
| Elissa Slotkin | 61% | 59¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 26.7K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 60% | ▲ 4 | 58¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 41.9K |
| Raphael Warnock | 56% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 10.9K |
| Ruben Gallego | 46% | ▼ 1 | 44¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 40.0K |
| Jared Polis | 38% | 37¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 9.9K | |
| Shawn Fain | 33% | 31¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 27.00 | |
| Phil Murphy | 32% | 30¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 2.8K | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 30% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 44.6K |
| Dean Phillips | 25% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 6.1K |
| Mikie Sherrill | 24% | 23¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.5K | |
| Stephen A. Smith | 21% | ▼ 2 | 19¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 37.5K |
| Abigail Spanberger | 21% | 19¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 17.9K | |
| Hunter Biden | 15% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 39.2K |
| Mark Cuban | 14% | ▲ 2 | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 18.1K |
| Roy Cooper | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 9.1K | |
| Jon Stewart | 13% | 11¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 15.7K | |
| John Fetterman | 12% | 9¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 7.0K | |
| James Talarico | 11% | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 2.6K | |
| Michelle Obama | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | 10.3K | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 870 | |
| Tim Walz | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 40.3K | |
| Barack Obama | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | 2.0K |
| Hillary Clinton | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | 3.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel
Search ›-
Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028Sirota | Substack Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028 Desperate to cast their do-nothing, pro-billionaire agenda as shrewd politics, Democratic elites pretend the key swing vote is country-club Republicans rather than… -
Rahm Emanuel: 'We're at a Tipping Point, There Is No Reset Button' for Israel-U.S. RelationsIn this episode of the Haaretz podcast, Rahm Emanuel – former White House chief-of-staff, veteran Democratic party insider, and potential presidential hopeful – speaks with guest host Joshua Leifer about the future of the U.S.-Israel… -
Pete Buttigieg to campaign with Pia Dandiya in CD 22Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary under President Joe Biden, will appear with Dandiya in Plantation for a canvassing launch. Dandiya is running in the battleground Florida’s 22nd Congressional District against Republican… -
"The Angle:" In depth with former Mayor Rahm Emanuel, State's Atty. Eileen BurkePolitical Reporter Chris Tye recently sat down with Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel to talk about the state of the city and other issues, and Cook County State’s Attorney Eileen Burke, who talked about the problems with the county’s… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies for Virginia Dems: ‘We have the right kind of leaders to carry us forward’The former Democratic presidential candidate and Biden administration Cabinet secretary urged voters to help Democrats in three competitive races in Virginia. Excited voters crowded into the Henrico Theatre outside Richmond on Oct. 19 to… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies with Taylor, Luria, PerrielloPete Buttigieg, a former U.S. transportation secretary and presidential candidate, took the stage at the Henrico Theatre on Monday to rally Virginia Democrats ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Joining Buttigieg were 1st District… -
Rahm Emanuel: Impeachment is ‘just going to be a big food fight’ rather than bringing reformPresident Trump is spending every day this week traveling to a different red state as republicans worry about their midterm outlook. MS NOW Senior White House Reporter Vaughn Hillyard has more details. Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and… -
2028 Democratic Rivals Target Andy Beshear“Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is in open war with prominent Latino lawmakers, and his potential 2028 rivals for president are taking advantage,” Axios reports. “Beshear, as head of the Democratic Governors Association (DGA), has resisted… -
Aldermen Want To Reinstate "Head Tax," Use TIF Surplus To Bail Out CPSMay 9, 2017 / 2:29 PM CDT / CBS Chicago CHICAGO (CBS) -- Several aldermen, activists, and others have pushed their own plan to bail out the cash-strapped Chicago Public Schools, since Mayor Rahm Emanuel has yet to outline how he plans to… -
Cheryl Hines, Rachel Campos-Duffy spill on private Cabinet wives club navigating life in WashingtonSpouses of Trump administration Cabinet members say they lean on one another as they navigate life in Washington, offering a behind-the-scenes look at their friendships on the latest episode of Fox News' "the Girls" podcast. On Thursday's… -
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear criticizes Trump's Highland Heights rally speech as 'a complete disservice'HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, Ky. — Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear criticized President Donald Trump's rally speech in Highland Heights on Saturday, calling it a disservice to the state and its people. Trump held the rally to boost Republican turnout… -
'I know how I'm going to vote for President': Pete Buttigieg on his ideal 2028 Presidential candidateLatest News from CNN Politics CNN ‘I know how I’m going to vote for President’: Pete Buttigieg on his ideal 2028 Presidential candidate Former Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg joins Kasie Hunt to discuss the upcoming Midterm…
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
16%Gavin Newsom
- Gavin Newsom16%▲ 2
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%▼ 1
- Jon Ossoff16%
50 more
- Kamala Harris7%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear3%
- James Talarico3%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Wes Moore2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- Ro Khanna1%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%▲ 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom10%▲ 1
51 more
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Ron DeSantis3%
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
54%Nithya Raman
- Nithya Raman54%▲ 2
- Karen Bass46%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.