MT-01 House Election Winner
54%Aaron Flint (R)
- Aaron Flint (R)54%▲ 2
- Sam Forstag (D)46%
Install
MT-01 House winner? (2026)
The odds
55%Aaron Flint
- Aaron Flint55%
- Sam Forstag46%
How the odds have moved
Aaron Flint: 67% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint | 55% | 54¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 326.0K | |
| Sam Forstag | 46% | 45¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 374.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- MT-01 House winner? (2026)Aaron Flint (R)Kalshi 55%Polymarket 54%Agree
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: MT- House, Aaron Flint, Sam Forstag
Search ›-
Democrat Sam Forstag outraises Republican Aaron Flint in western US House districtAs the 2026 election cycle nears its close, campaign spending continues to heat up in Montana's competitive races. Campaign finance filings through Oct. 14 show Democrat Sam Forstag with a lead in both total fundraising and cash on hand… -
Sam Forstag comes to UMU.S. Congressional candidate Sam Forstag speaks during a town hall in the Eck liberal arts building at University of Montana on Oct. 20. Sam Forstag took to the University of Montana Tuesday evening to speak with students two weeks before… -
Sam Forstag responds to GOP attacks on trans issues: 'We don't have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections'CNN Sam Forstag responds to GOP attacks on trans issues: ‘We don’t have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections’ Montana Democratic House candidate Sam Forstag talks to Dana Bash about Republican campaign attacks on trans… -
House Speaker Mike Johnson stumps in Bozeman for Aaron FlintThis luncheon comes less than a week after President Trump rallied in Kalispell for Republican candidate Aaron Flint. When Speaker Johnson was asked if his visit so soon after the president sends a message of fear, Johnson says just the… -
RAW: MT: HOUSE SPEAKER JOHNSON IN MT/RURAL HEALTHCARELocal 3 News House Speaker Mike Johnson brings national spotlight to Montana GOP races Live cockroaches, spoiled food and glove-changing lead this week's violations Woman killed after being struck by vehicle in Chattanooga; police… -
Letter to the editor: Vote Sam Forstag for CongressBillings Gazette Javascript is required to use this website. I am writing in hopes of convincing my fellow Montanans to choose Sam Forstag as our next representative for Montanaâs First Congressional District. People are also reading⦅ -
Montana GOP Congressional Candidate Aaron Flint: ‘the Anti-American Left’ Wants an ‘AOC-Endorsed Socialist Elected in the Heartland of America’Montana Republican congressional candidate Aaron Flint told Breitbart News Washington Bureau chief Matthew Boyle that “the anti-American left” are “flooding” his state with cash “because they want to get an AOC-endorsed socialist elected… -
House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns for Aaron Flint in BozemanThe third most powerful person in the U.S. government made a campaign stop in Bozeman today. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is the focus of a lunch rally at the Gallatin County Fairgrounds. Test results have confirmed his diagnosis as a… -
Death of a cypherpunkThe must-read briefing on the people, power moves, policy battles and market shifts defining what’s next in global technology. By SAM SUTTON, CALDER MCHUGH, BRENDAN BORDELON and CHRISTINE MUI 10/21/2026 06:55 AM EDT With help from Victoria… -
Vice President JD Vance to stump for Republicans in Belgrade next weekUnited States Vice President J.D. Vance will visit Belgrade next week to campaign on behalf of Republican candidates for federal office in Montana. Carly Graf has worked for the Montana State News Bureau since 2023. In recent years, the… -
Debate heats up Flint-Forstag raceU.S. Congressional candidate Sam Forstag stands in the alleyway next to his Missoula office on Regent street in Missoula, Mont, on Oct. 16. Montana U.S. House candidates Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag debated in Helena on Oct. 13, clashing… - Meet the smoke jumper running for CongressThe Washington Post Sam Forstag, 32, is trying to flip a red seat in Montana, challenging the chosen successor of Rep. Ryan Zincke (R). Sam Forstag used to parachute out of planes to fight wildfires for a living. Now, he could become the…
Related markets
All house ›Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▼ 1
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
MN-05 House winner?
94%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar94%
- John Nagel5%▲ 1
- DeVelle Jackson1%
NC-03 House winner?
72%Greg Murphy
- Greg Murphy72%▼ 7
- Raymond Smith Jr.28%▲ 8
TX-23 House winner?
61%Brandon Herrera
- Brandon Herrera61%▼ 1
- Katy Padilla Stout39%
NC-03 House Election Winner
70%Greg Murphy (R)
- Greg Murphy (R)70%▼ 10
- Raymond Smith Jr. (D)28%▲ 8
IA-02 House winner?
72%Lindsay James
- Lindsay James72%▲ 6
- Joe Mitchell28%▼ 7
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.