US Unemployment Rate (Dec 2026)
4.12%median
0.7%7.2%
Median 4.12%Middle half 3.8% – 4.78%
Install
US Unemployment Rate (Oct 2026)
The odds
46%Above 3.4%
3.2%5.2%
How the odds have moved
Above 3.4%: 47% on Oct 20, 46% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | 46% | $2.16 | ||||
| Above 3.6% | 46% | $2.16 | ||||
| Above 3.8% | 46% | $2.16 | 2.2K | |||
| Above 4% | 46% | $2.16 | 1.6K | |||
| Above 4.2% | 37% | $2.70 | 452 | |||
| Above 4.4% | 5% | $22.22 | 900 | |||
| Above 4.6% | 5% | $22.22 | 800 | |||
| Above 4.8% | 5% | $22.22 | ||||
| Above 5% | 5% | $22.22 | 700 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
Uruguay Unemployment Rate Dips to 7.1%The Uruguay unemployment rate dipped to 7.1% in September 2026, down from 7.2% in August, the national statistics office INE said on Friday 23 October. INE calls the level similar to both the previous month and September 2025, so the… -
NEWS RELEASE: Hawai’i September Unemployment Rate at 2.8 PercentKA MOKU ʻĀINA O HAWAIʻI DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TOURISM KA ʻOIHANA HOʻOMOHALA PĀʻOIHANA, ʻIMI WAIWAI A HOʻOMĀKAʻIKAʻI RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION HAWAI‘I SEPTEMBER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 2.8 PERCENT Jobs… -
Mentor Unemployment Rate Rises to 1.7% in SeptemberThe unemployment rate in September 2026 for the City of Mentor increased 0.1% to 1.7% and in September 2025, the unemployment rate was 2.9%. For Lake County, the unemployment rate increased 0.2% to 1.8% in September 2026 and one year… -
Nevada’s unemployment rate dips slightly in SeptemberThe unemployment rate in Nevada declined one-tenth of 1% from August to September. A report from the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehab noted that the rate now stands at 4.7%, down from 4.8%. The number of nonfarm jobs… -
Kendall County unemployment rate falls to 3.6%Kendall County’s unemployment rate was down in September compared with a year ago. The rate was 3.6% this September, compared with 4.2% in September 2025. Unemployment rates in DeKalb and Kane counties were also down over the year. Both… - Vermont's unemployment rate remains low, but its aging population is leaving the workforceVermont’s unemployment rate in September held steady at 2.6%, and remains among the lowest in the country. But the state’s workforce continues to shrink, having lost nearly 10,000 people in the past year. According to the latest…
- Vermont’s Unemployment Rate Remained at 2.6 Percent in September | Department of LaborVermont’s Unemployment Rate Remained at 2.6 Percent in September Today, the Vermont Department of Labor released data on the Vermont economy for the time period covering September 2026. According to household data, the seasonally-adjusted…
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Greene County’s Unemployment Rate Down In SeptemberThe Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development reported Thursday afternoon that Greene County’s unemployment rate in September was 4.5 percent, down from 4.9 percent in August. Greene County’s rate in September 2025 was 4.6… -
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… -
Unemployment rates fall in all 95 Tennessee countiesEvery county in Tennessee reported a decline in their unemployment rates from the previous month, according to September data released by the Tennessee Department of Labor & Workforce Development on Thursday. Bradley County's unemployment… -
U.S. unemployment rates revealed: new state-by-state map shows where Americans are struggling to find workUnemployment rose in seven states over the past year, led by Connecticut, according to federal data released two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its state-by-state… -
Robeson County Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.1% in August as Labor Force GrowsRobeson County's unemployment rate fell 0.3% in August, according to N.C. Department of Commerce data released recently by The Robesonian. The county's non-seasonally-adjusted jobless rate landed at 5.1%, down from 5.4% in July. July had…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.