Bank of Mexico rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)
87%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate87%▲ 13
- Cut 25bps9%▼ 17
- Hike 25bps1%
- Hike 50bps1%
3 more
- Hike more than 50bps1%
- Cut more than 50bps1%
- Cut 50bps1%
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Bank of Mexico Decision (Nov 5, 2026)
The odds
74%Hold
- Hold74%
- Cut 25 bp17%
- Hike 25 bp9%
- Hike 50+ bp<1%
- Cut 50+ bp<1%
How the odds have moved
Hold: 72% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on ForecastEx. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 3 PM ETHold: 64% → 74%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 74% | $1.35 | 10.00 | |||
| Cut 25 bp | 17% | $5.95 | 22.00 | |||
| Hike 25 bp | 9% | $11.30 | 10.00 | |||
| Hike 50+ bp | <1% | |||||
| Cut 50+ bp | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- Bank of Mexico rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 87%ForecastEx 74%13 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Mexico Decision in November?HoldPolymarket 88%ForecastEx 74%14 pts apart
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
87%No change
- No change87%▲ 14
- 25 bps decrease11%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Bank of Mexico Decision
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All central banks ›Bank of Brazil decision in November?
65%No Change
- No Change65%▲ 49
- 25 bps decrease22%▼ 60
- 25 bps increase5%▲ 5
2 more
- 50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
- 50+ bps decrease2%▲ 1
Bank of Brazil decision in December?
52%No Change
- No Change52%▲ 28
- 25 bps decrease19%▼ 40
- 50+ bps increase12%▲ 11
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 14
- 25 bps increase2%
Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
81%Hike 25bps
- Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
- Maintains rate17%
- Hike >25bps1%
2 more
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
5median
57
Median 5Middle half 5 – 6
Central Bank of Colombia decision in December
69%No change
- No change69%▼ 4
- 25 bps increase18%▲ 7
- 50+ bps increase7%▼ 2
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease4%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease2%▼ 1
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
97%No change
- No change97%
- 25 bps increase2%
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions