EU AI Act Enforcement (Dec 31, 2026)

ForecastEx Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $1.5K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

28%Above 0

Above 028%

How the odds have moved

Above 0: 28% on Oct 20, 28% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.

The news: EU AI Act Enforcement

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EU Opens First AI Act Enforcement Cases Against OpenAI and Anthropic@indexbox · 11 days agoEU AI Act Enforcement: OpenAI and Anthropic Face First Cases Over Rogue AI Agents - News and Statistics IndexBox The AI Office issued its requests after concluding that material the two companies had supplied voluntarily was not adequate…

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%Google

Google89%▲ 2
Anthropic8%▼ 2
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

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Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)

19.97%median

15.2%22.8%

Median 19.97%Middle half 19.86% – 20.08%

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OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 7, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202614%▼ 2
December 31, 202753%▼ 7

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

64%No release by October 31

No release by October 3164%▼ 10
October 2718%
October 266%▲ 3

11 more

October 294%▲ 1
October 283%▲ 1
October 312%▲ 1
October 301%▲ 1
October 251%▲ 1
October 201%▼ 12
October 24<1%
October 19<1%▼ 2
October 21<1%▼ 5
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 23<1%▼ 4

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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1,410median

1,3801,480

Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Nov 16, 2026even chance by

October 21<1%▼ 12
October 22<1%▼ 14
October 241%

2 more

October 3136%▲ 11
December 3194%▲ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueForecastEx

Settles onforecastex.com

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 12:59 AM ET

Traded$1.5K (0 contracts)

This week$1.5K

At stake$1.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The full rules are on the market's page at ForecastEx.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.