Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
5%chance▼ 1
Install
Will Crypto Market Structure Legislation Be Signed Into Law?
The odds
29%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 202829%
- Before Oct 1, 202722%
- Before Jul 1, 202720%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
- Before Jan 1, 20276%
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Nov 1, 20263%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2028: 28% on Oct 20, 29% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 22, 10 AM ETBefore Jan 1, 2028: 16% → 29%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 29% | 14¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 49.00 | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 22% | 6¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 124 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 20% | 9¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | ||
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 17% | 1¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 10.00 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Crypto Market Structure Legislation Be Signed Into Law
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.