Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Polymarket Culture › Music Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $65 today · $1.1M traded · $203K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

<1%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 1% on Oct 20, <1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	<1%		0¢	0¢		$1.1M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky

Search ›

Zelensky Adviser Slams Musk Over Claims Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsNewsweek · 6 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 09:20 AM EDT A top Ukrainian official has hit back at claims from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that Kyiv's military used the commercial Starlink satellite network for offensive drone strikes against Russian forces. Ukraine said…
Map shows Ukraine's battlefield advances threatening key Russian supply linesNewsweek · 5 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 12:54 PM EDT Ukrainian forces are making slow battlefield gains that might threaten Russia's ability to supply its troops, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of part of the front line. One Ukrainian military…
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townNPR · 15 h agoRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian…
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionNewsweek · 25 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country…
UN panel: Russia is committing crimes against humanity by targeting civilians in UkraineCNN · 9 h agoRussia is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity by intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure – including vital energy systems – in Ukraine, an independent UN investigations panel said on Monday. Russian forces have been…
Zelensky says trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meeting to take place in NovemberMacau Business · 10 h agoUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said that a trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow would take place in November aiming to restart stalled peace talks. “We are ready to talk. If it’s a territorial issue, it…
Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkrainePatrika News · 20 h agoSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
Putin: Russians and Ukrainians are “in fact, one nation”Dagens.com · 7 h agoVladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are “in fact, one nation,” citing unspecified genetic research. Political leaders often lean on historical narratives to justify modern borders, attempting to make sudden military…
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineNewsweek · 27 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S…
Russia burning as Ukraine launches massive blitz on Putin's 'Doomsday' jet factoryExpress.co.uk · 14 h agoUnexplained explosions hit a fuel train on a line linked to the Trans-Siberian Railway - the world's longest non-stop train - in the Sverdlovsk region, igniting seven diesel wagons and derailing 20 carriages. An investigation into possible…
Russia says it caught Ukrainian agents preparing close range drone attack on Moscow’s air defensesNew York Post · 13 h agoRussia’s FSB security service has thwarted a planned Ukrainian drone attack from inside Russia on a key element of Moscow’s air defense system and on ‌an electricity facility, the FSB said on Monday, saying it had arrested two men…
Zelensky: Ukraine Offered US 3 Ways to Stop Strikes on Russian Oil RefineriesKyiv Post · 15 h agoIn brief: Zelensky said Ukraine was prepared to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the US enabled Starlink coverage over Russia, or Washington supplied Patriot missiles. He…

Related markets

All music ›

Culture › Music

Junior Eurovision Winner 2026

99%Armenia

Armenia99%▲ 56
Albania<1%▼ 1
Azerbaijan<1%▼ 1

15 more

Croatia<1%▼ 2
Cyprus<1%▼ 4
France<1%▼ 13
Georgia<1%▼ 6
Ireland<1%▼ 14
Italy<1%▼ 1
Malta<1%▼ 22
Montenegro<1%▼ 2
Netherlands<1%▼ 2
North Macedonia<1%▼ 9
Poland<1%▼ 7
Portugal<1%▼ 1
San Marino<1%▼ 4
Spain<1%▼ 25
Ukraine<1%▼ 16

Culture › Music

Bad Bunny Streams in 2026

33.74Bmedian

27.00B35.00B

Median 33.74BMiddle half 31.93B – 34.25B

Culture › Music

#1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the Week of Nov 7, 2026?

61%you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love61%
Thriller39%
SOS30%

12 more

DANDELION16%
One Thing At A Time3%
HABIBTI3%
The Life of a Showgirl2%
Palace for the People2%
PRIMA2%
I'm The Problem1%
The Great Divide1%
ICEMAN1%
hungover1%
The Art of Loving1%
Stick Season1%

Culture › Music

Luh Leakyz Vol. 1: First Week Album Equivalent Units (Luh Leakyz Vol. 1 | October 23, 2026 - October 29, 2026)

37%Above 15K

10,00055,000

Culture › Music

Taylor Swift daily view count hits ___ in October?

3%↑24M

Reaches 24.00M3%
Reaches 25.00M2%

Culture › Music

Choosin' Texas weeks at #1: 2026

29.3median

2537

Median 29.3Middle half 27.8 – 30.1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1M

Today$65

This week$6.1K

At stake$203K

In the news640 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is scheduled to perform in Russia in October 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West performs live in-person on-stage in front of a live audience in Russia by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The performance must take place at an event that was announced or promoted in advance, and held at a venue such as an arena, stadium, festival ground, concert hall, theater, or club, and is open to an audience by ticket, invitation, or other controlled entry. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions