Texas Governor winner? (2026)
67%Greg Abbott
- Greg Abbott67%▼ 1
- Gina Hinojosa33%
Install
California Governor Election: Turnout
The odds
12.77Mmedian
10.00M15.00M
Median 12.77MMiddle half 11.63M – 13.23M
How the odds have moved
Median: 13.05M on Oct 20, 12.77M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <10.5M | 19% | ▲ 3 | 20¢ | 24¢ | $4.26 | $2.2K |
| 10.5M-11M | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $3.8K | ||
| 11M-11.5M | 5% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $1.6K |
| 11.5M-12M | 2% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $1K |
| 12M-12.5M | 9% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $1.4K |
| 12.5M-13M | 27% | ▼ 2 | 30¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $6.5K |
| 13M-13.5M | 26% | ▲ 3 | 29¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | $4.4K |
| 13.5M-14M | 5% | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.26 | $1.7K | |
| 14M-14.5M | 2% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $1.1K |
| 14.5M+ | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | $1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California Governor
Search ›-
Trump Admin Posts Map of America With No VermontOct 26, 2026 at 06:18 AM EDT While announcing major investments in energy infrastructure this week, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) seemed to make one key mistake—leaving out an entire state. The DOE’s official account shared a graphic… -
Steve Hilton hits Dem governor's 2028 pitch by calling out Newsom's rail recordSteve Hilton questioned California's unfinished high-speed rail project after Andy Beshear touted Democratic governors' accomplishments on HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher,' prompting Maher to agree. Republican California gubernatorial… -
Trump Says He Doesn’t ‘Give A Damn’ About Gas Prices As US Making ‘Fortune’Oct 25, 2026 at 09:10 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 09:23 AM EDT President Donald Trump has said he does not "give a damn" about potential criticism of his remarks boasting that the United States is making a "fortune" from high oil prices, as… - Gavin Newsom Builds National Fundraising Machine Ahead Of Anticipated 2028 Presidential RunBy David Prior | Oct 25, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics California Governor Gavin Newsom has quietly assembled a small-dollar fundraising operation that Democratic strategists believe could give him a decisive edge in a 2028…
-
Karoline Leavitt Offers Blunt Advice to Newsom, Calif. Dems: Work With TrumpThese content recommendations are provided by AdStyle and may be paid by the advertiser whose ad you clicked on. Ad.Style recognizes interest based on how you and other visitors interact with content suggestions. You can advertise your… -
2026 General Election: Meet the Gubernatorial and Mayoral candidatesXavier Becerra, former U.S. Health Secretary and former State Attorney General, is the Democratic candidate. Becerra wants to build more affordable homes and reduce construction costs. He wants to: Becerra aims to build toward a universal… -
Bombshell poll finds California voters say state is heading in the wrong direction — but election numbers tell a different storyDemocrat Xavier Becerra has opened up a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor – despite Californians being so fed up with the direction of the Golden State that nearly half have seriously… -
Steve Hilton discusses the CA Governor's raceRepublican candidate for California Governor Steve Hilton discusses his campaign in the final days before the midterm elections. Steve Hilton discusses the CA Governor’s race Republican candidate for California Governor Steve Hilton… -
Mrs Gavin Newsom: feminist film-maker, Weinstein accuser … first lady?Jennifer Siebel Newsom, wife of the California governor, worries about what an unpredictable Trump will do and says ‘our country’s life is on the line’ Mrs Gavin Newsom: feminist film-maker, Weinstein accuser … first lady? Jennifer Siebel… -
California enacts new social media curbs for children under 16California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed new restrictions on technology companies to protect children from addictive social media features and AI companion chatbots. As reported by Reuters, the measures were among 13 bills enacted as… -
Californians reveal their pick for Dem president — and it’s not Gavin NewsomCalifornia voters have revealed their top picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary — and Gov. Gavin Newsom didn’t even crack the top two, according to a new poll commissioned by the California Post. Golden State voters were asked… - San Francisco Declares Emergency as Historic El Niño Threatens Flooding, High TidesSan Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie declared a local emergency on Friday, October 23, 2026, to speed up the city's preparations for El Niño storm conditions, flooding and high tides expected this winter. The move clears procedural hurdles so…
Related markets
All governors ›Florida Governor winner? (2026)
79%Byron Donalds
- Byron Donalds79%▼ 1
- David Jolly22%▲ 2
California Governor Election Winner
96%Xavier Becerra
- Xavier Becerra96%
- Steve Hilton3%
- Rick Caruso<1%
20 more
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Katie Porter<1%
- Antonio Villaraigosa<1%
- Stephen Cloobeck<1%
- Butch Ware<1%
- Betty Yee<1%
- Toni Atkins<1%
- Kyle Langford<1%
- Chad Bianco<1%
- Eleni Kounalakis<1%
- Daniel Mercuri<1%
- Tony Thurmond<1%
- Michael Younger<1%
- Leo Zacky<1%
- Nicole Shanahan<1%
- Eric Swalwell<1%
- Tom Steyer<1%
- Kamala Harris<1%
- Matt Mahan<1%
- Elaine Culotti<1%
Nevada Governor winner? (2026)
73%Aaron Ford
- Aaron Ford73%▲ 5
- Joe Lombardo28%▼ 5
Ohio Governor winner? (2026)
83%Amy Acton
- Amy Acton83%
- Vivek Ramaswamy18%▼ 1
Arizona Governor Election Winner
90%Katie Hobbs (D)
- Katie Hobbs (D)90%▼ 1
- Andy Biggs (R)10%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions