Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes May 31, 2027 · $417 today · $248K traded · $43.7K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

82%Elif Eralp
  • Elif Eralp82%▲ 5
  • Stefan Evers14%▼ 1
  • Werner Graf1%
  • Steffen Krach1%▼ 1
  • Kristin Brinker<1%

How the odds have moved

Elif Eralp: 84% on Oct 20, 82% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 11 PM ETElif Eralp: 85% → 77%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Elif Eralp 82% ▲ 5 81¢ 82¢ $1.22 $159K
Stefan Evers 14% ▼ 1 13¢ 15¢ $6.67 $58.4K
Werner Graf 1% 1¢ $71.43 $21.4K
Steffen Krach 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $5.9K
Kristin Brinker <1% 0¢ $3.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Governing Mayor of Berlin, Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers

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  • Collaboration in Urban Planning and Education to Be StrengthenedMONTSAME News Agency · 5 days agoUlaanbaatar, October 22, 2026 /MONTSAME/. During the state visit of Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa to the Federal Republic of Germany, Kai Wegner, Governing Mayor of Berlin, paid a courtesy call on the President. The President noted…
  • Red-Green-Red in Berlin on a coalition and expropriation courseMarketScreener · 4 days agoPublished on 10/18/2026 at 11:19 am EDT BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - The exploratory talks in Berlin were difficult, with friction and setbacks. The pressure from outside is enormous, and it is not only Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) who is warning…
  • Berlin: Greens and SPD in favor of coalition talks with Left PartyMarketScreener · 4 days agoPublished on 10/19/2026 at 03:32 pm EDT (new: Greens also in favor of negotiations) The Left Party will not vote on the matter until a party conference on October 31. The reason is Berlin's two-week fall vacation. If approved, coalition…
  • Social Democrats, Greens back coalition talks with The Left in BerlinYahoo News · 8 days agoThe Berlin chapters of Germany's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens have backed opening coalition talks with The Left to form the city's next government. The SPD's state leadership approved the step with a wide majority in an…
  • Berlin marks 85th anniversary of Nazi deportations at station memorialYahoo News · 9 days agoPoliticians and civil society representatives gathered at Berlin's Platform 17 Memorial on Sunday to commemorate 85 years since the Nazis started to systematically deport Jews from the German capital. Berlin Mayor Kai Wegner, Federal…
  • Berlin's left wants to nationalize 160.000 apartments and cap rentsvijesti.me · 10 days agoThe three parties also announce that they will strengthen measures to combat "housing profiteering" The new state government in Berlin could put about 160.000 apartments under public ownership after three left-wing parties made significant…
  • Red-Green-Red in Berlin plans expropriations and wants to solve trash problemMarketScreener · 11 days agoPublished on 10/18/2026 at 05:36 am EDT According to Elif Eralp, the Left's co-chair of its parliamentary group, five major companies, including Vonovia, would be affected. Around 160,000 additional apartments would thereby come into…
  • Berlin: Social Democrats and Greens want pro-Israel stance for coalition with The LeftMiddle East Eye · 11 days agoGermany’s Social Democrats and Greens have made commitments to Israel a condition for coalition talks with the left-wing party Die Linke to form Berlin’s next government. The parties were due to continue talks on Friday after a dispute…
  • German court orders minister to delete antisemitism videoYeni Şafak English · 11 days agoThe Left Party took the case to the Karlsruhe-based court after the ministry refused its demand to delete the video by Sept. 29. The court stressed that Reiche remains free to express her views as a politician or private citizen, though it…
  • Berlin Coalition’s Tussle Over Anti-SemitismtheTrumpet.com · 12 days agoBy Adam Jones • October 15, 2026 The Green Party and Social Democratic Party (spd) will resume talks with Die Linke (The Left) party to form the state government of Berlin, party leaders said yesterday. Berlin is one of Germany’s 16…
  • BACKGROUND: Three-way talks on forming a government begin in BerlinMarketScreener · 13 days agoPublished on 09/30/2026 at 06:54 am EDT BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - The election-winning Left party, the Greens and the SPD are beginning talks on forming a government in Berlin this Thursday. Here is what you need to know. What is at stake? In the…
  • Anti-Semitism pledge stands, coalition talks back on in BerlinYahoo News · 13 days agoThe Left, the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD) agreed on Wednesday evening that their joint declaration on combatting anti-Semitism stands, so they can restart talks to form a regional coalition to govern the city state of Berlin. The…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions