Texas Governor winner? (2026)
67%Greg Abbott
- Greg Abbott67%▼ 1
- Gina Hinojosa33%
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Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory
The odds
28%Republican 0-5%
- Republican 0-5%28%
- Republican 5-10%20%
- Democrat Wins18%▼ 7
- Republican 10-15%17%
- Republican 25-30%9%▲ 6
- Republican 15-20%4%▲ 1
- Republican 20-25%3%▼ 1
- Republican 30%+3%
How the odds have moved
Republican 0-5%: 28% on Oct 20, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican 0-5% | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $6.4K | |
| Republican 5-10% | 20% | 20¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | $3.6K | |
| Democrat Wins | 18% | ▼ 7 | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $10.3K |
| Republican 10-15% | 17% | 17¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $2.5K | |
| Republican 25-30% | 9% | ▲ 6 | 3¢ | 16¢ | $6.29 | $395 |
| Republican 15-20% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $899 |
| Republican 20-25% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.39 | $411 |
| Republican 30%+ | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $385 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory, Democrat Wins
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Banks Get Warning About What Could Happen if Democrats Win MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 04:45 PM EDT Some of America’s biggest banks are being told to preserve records involving Russian diesel as senior Democrats prepare for investigations that could begin if next week’s midterm elections shift control of… -
If Democrats win big, will they learn the right lessons from their victory?No election outcome ever interprets itself. So how will Democrats interpret these results once they are known? Whichever metaphor one prefers – landslide, earthquake, wave – it seems increasingly like the Democrats can expect a significant… -
Rep. Crow Says Ousting Hegseth “My Priority” if Democrats Win the House, Massie Says He’ll Refile ImpeachmentSec. Pete Hegseth, Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons Rep. Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told CBS News Face the Nation on Sunday that removing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would be… -
CA Senator Previews the Schiff Show We'll See If Democrats Win MidtermsAdam Schiff has yet to produce the evidence of the Russia collusion he promised many times starting in 2017. The California Democrat senator made numerous statements over the years along the lines of there is “direct evidence” of… -
Explainer-Four ways US foreign policy could change if Democrats win in NovemberDemocrats argue that Republicans have allowed President Donald Trump’s administration to declare war and control spending, even though the US Constitution reserves those powers for lawmakers. Here are some ways a Democratic Congress could… -
4 ways US foreign policy could change if Democrats win in NovemberA man holds a 'Vote Blue' sign while sitting in a golf cart during a Democratic rally in The Villages, Florida, US, October 17, 2026. WASHINGTON, USA – Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats stand a good chance of winning the US House of… - Republicans will go to prison if Democrats win in November - Progressives not afraid to say the quiet part out loudThe casual way Democrats threaten to throw Republicans in prison or prosecute them for supporting President Trump is alarming and indicative of exactly what they will try to do if they win power on Nov. 3. On “The Bulwark Daily” podcast…
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Trump faces backlash after invoking 9/11 in verbal assault on El-SayedUS President Donald Trump is facing a backlash after invoking 9/11 as part of a verbal assault on Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Michigan. Speaking at a rally in the state on Sunday, Trump accused El-Sayed of… -
Conservative Activist Mike Davis Outlines What’s at Stake for the U.S. Supreme Court if Democrats Win (VIDEO)Conservative activist Mike Davis recently appeared on FOX News and sounded the alarm about what a Democrat win in the midterms, or even worse in 2028, would mean for the U.S. Supreme Court. Davis reminded the audience that there are… -
House Democrats call on DOJ to name special counsel in Epstein caseWASHINGTON — House Judiciary Committee Democrats are calling for an independent special counsel to investigate evidence of President Donald Trump’s alleged criminal ties to Jeffrey Epstein, according to a new report made public Monday… -
Pete Hegseth Is Trying To Flee The Trump Administration Before He Can Be ImpeachedEight days before the midterm election, two things have become certain. Democrats are going to take back the House, and after they do, Democrats are going to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. There is a list of Trump cabinet… -
Victor Davis Hanson Suggests Democrats Look Desperate as Midterm Races Tighten (VIDEO)Conservative historian and scholar Victor Davis Hanson appeared on the Ingraham Angle on Monday night and suggested that as the midterm races are tightening, Democrats look increasingly desperate. Hanson pointed to the fact that o many…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions