Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 10:59 PM ET · $4.2K today · $71.2K traded · $18.4K at stake · prices read 33 h ago

The odds

4%Flávio Bolsonaro
  • Flávio Bolsonaro4%▼ 2
  • Lula da Silva1%▼ 2
  • Ronaldo Caiado<1%▼ 3
  • Romeu Zema<1%
  • Renan Santos<1%▼ 1
  • Augusto Cury<1%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Flávio Bolsonaro: 23% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 11 PM ETFlávio Bolsonaro: 18% → 13%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Flávio Bolsonaro 4% ▼ 2 7¢ $14.08 $59.5K
Lula da Silva 1% ▼ 2 2¢ $45.45 $4K
Ronaldo Caiado <1% ▼ 3 0¢ $2.1K
Romeu Zema <1% 0¢ $3.1K
Renan Santos <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $1.3K
Augusto Cury <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: President of Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions