US Real GDP (Q3 2026)
3.03%median
-4.5%5.5%
Median 3.03%Middle half 2.18% – 4%
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US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
The odds
3.14%median
0%3.5%
Median 3.14%Middle half 2.85% – 3.32%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5% | 1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.7K | |
| 0.5–1.0% | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1.3K | |
| 1.0–1.5% | 4% | ▲ 2 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $1.4K |
| 1.5–2.0% | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | $1.6K | |
| 2.0–2.5% | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $3.8K |
| 2.5–3.0% | 16% | 14¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | $5.1K | |
| ≥3.0% | 70% | ▲ 3 | 66¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | $46.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on ForecastEx
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianPolymarket 3.14%ForecastEx 3.03%0.11 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Kalshi
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?MedianKalshi 3.35%Polymarket 3.14%0.2 pts apart
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.35%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.35%Middle half 2.75% – 3.9%
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: GDP, economic growth
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.