Predictions › Elections › Around the world
-0.50 5.50
Median 1.34 Middle half 0.91 – 1.98
Median: 1.33 on Oct 20, 1.34 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Student List – Students Win >99% ▲ 73 Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia <1% ▼ 74 Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! <1% 7 more Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) <1% Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor <1% Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification <1% Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić <1% Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović <1% European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš <1% SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak <1% Lula da Silva <4% >99% ▲ 82 Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ <1% ▼ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% <1% ▼ 5 5 more Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% <1% ▼ 36 Flávio Bolsonaro <4% <1% ▼ 38 Lula da Silva 4-8% <1% ▼ 1 Lula da Silva 8-12% <1% Lula da Silva 12%+ <1% Yashar 73% ▲ 3 Likud 26% ▼ 3 Together <1% 3 more Shas <1% The Democrats <1% Otzma Yehudit <1%
16 39
Median 21.6 Middle half 19.3 – 23.7
Marine Le Pen 45% ▲ 2 Édouard Philippe 17% ▲ 1 David Lisnard 15% ▲ 1 42 more Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% François Hollande 3% Raphaël Glucksmann 3% ▼ 1 Bruno Retailleau 1% Éric Zemmour 1% Jordan Bardella 1% Gabriel Attal 1% Dominique de Villepin 1% Sarah Knafo 1% Christine Lagarde <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% Marion Maréchal <1% François Ruffin <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Jean Castex <1% Natacha Polony <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% François Baroin <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Gadi Eizenkot 46% ▼ 10 Benjamin Netanyahu 14% ▼ 9 Naftali Bennett 3% ▼ 9 15 more Avigdor Lieberman 2% ▼ 1 Yair Lapid 1% Benny Gantz 1% Yariv Levin 1% Yair Golan 1% Itamar Ben Gvir 1% ▼ 1 Yossi Cohen 1% Israel Katz 1% Gideon Sa'ar 1% Ayelet Shaked 1% Amir Ohana 1% Moshe Feiglin 1% Yoaz Hendel 1% Nir Barkat 1% Yuli Edelstein 1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Oct 27, 2026 7:59 PM ET
Traded $83.6K
Today $6.7K
This week $11.6K
At stake $11.5K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions
