NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion

Polymarket Sports › F1 & racing Closes Nov 22 · $1.3K today · $76.1K traded · $9.6K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

85%Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson85%▼ 2
Denny Hamlin4%▲ 2
Chase Briscoe3%▼ 2
Tyler Reddick2%▲ 1
Carson Hocevar2%
Bubba Wallace2%
Joey Logano1%
Ryan Blaney1%
Christopher Bell1%▼ 1
Ty Gibbs1%
Chase Elliott1%
Ryan Preece1%

4 more

William Byron<1%
Daniel Suarez<1%
Austin Cindric<1%
Chris Buescher<1%

How the odds have moved

Kyle Larson: 28% on Oct 20, 85% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Kyle Larson	85%	▼ 2	85¢	88¢	$1.14	$5.9K
Denny Hamlin	4%	▲ 2	2¢	7¢	$14.71	$25.4K
Chase Briscoe	3%	▼ 2	1¢	5¢	$22.22	$1.4K
Tyler Reddick	2%	▲ 1	1¢	4¢	$28.57	$6.9K
Carson Hocevar	2%		1¢	4¢	$28.57	$2.1K
Bubba Wallace	2%		1¢	3¢	$38.46	$2.2K
Joey Logano	1%		0¢	3¢	$40.00	$3.5K
Ryan Blaney	1%		0¢	2¢	$47.62	$13K
Christopher Bell	1%	▼ 1	1¢	1¢	$83.33	$3.3K
Ty Gibbs	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$753
Chase Elliott	1%		0¢	1¢	$90.91	$722
Ryan Preece	1%		0¢	1¢		$569
William Byron	<1%		0¢	1¢		$839
Daniel Suarez	<1%		0¢	0¢		$607
Austin Cindric	<1%		0¢	0¢		$637
Chris Buescher	<1%			0¢		$539
Ross Chastain	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$451
Austin Dillon	<1%			0¢		$200
Noah Gragson	<1%			0¢		$200
Brad Keselowski	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$537
Kyle Busch	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$125
Ty Dillon	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$185
AJ Allmendinger	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$572
Josh Berry	<1%			0¢		$200
Todd Gilliland	<1%			0¢		$351
Riley Herbst	<1%			0¢		$200
Zane Smith	<1%	▼ 5		1¢	$83.33	$488
Cole Custer	<1%	▼ 18		0¢		$300
John Hunter Nemechek	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$471
Erik Jones	<1%			0¢		$580
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	<1%	▼ 4		0¢		$321
Alex Bowman	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$516
Cody Ware	<1%	▼ 10		0¢		$490
Michael McDowell	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$451
Connor Zilisch	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$196
Shane van Gisbergen	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$739

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

NASCAR Cup Series ChampionKyle LarsonKalshi 86%Polymarket 85%1 pts apart

NASCAR Cup Series Champion

86%Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson86%▲ 6
Denny Hamlin3%▼ 11
Christopher Bell2%
Chase Briscoe2%▼ 3

31 more

William Byron<1%
Ryan Blaney<1%
Chase Elliott<1%
Tyler Reddick<1%▼ 2
Joey Logano<1%▼ 1
Connor Zilisch<1%
Ross Chastain<1%
Chris Buescher<1%
Bubba Wallace<1%
Alex Bowman<1%
Josh Berry<1%
Carson Hocevar<1%
Ty Gibbs<1%
Brad Keselowski<1%
Austin Cindric<1%
Ryan Preece<1%
Erik Jones<1%
Daniel Suarez<1%
Austin Dillon<1%
Zane Smith<1%
Ty Dillon<1%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.<1%
John Hunter Nemechek<1%
Cole Custer<1%
Cody Ware<1%
Todd Gilliland<1%
AJ Allmendinger<1%
Michael McDowell<1%
Noah Gragson<1%
Riley Herbst<1%
Shane Van Gisbergen<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: NASCAR Cup, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin

Search ›

Chase Briscoe on Pole for NASCAR Cup Race at TalladegaYahoo Sports · 46 h agoLINCOLN, Ala. -- Chase Briscoe is in the best position to go back-to-back in the fall NASCAR Cup Series race at Talladega Superspeedway, winning the pole for Sunday's Yellawood 500 and gaining points on the championship from the get-go…
Denny Hamlin Explodes at Teammate Chase Briscoe Over Talladega MoveHEAVY · 26 h agoDenny Hamlin wasn’t holding back his frustration with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe during Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Talladega Superspeedway. The two championship contenders were navigating the YellaWood 500 when Briscoe…
Kyle Larson reflects on 51-race winless drought amid NASCAR Cup title push - NBC SportsNBC Sports · 28 h agoKyle Larson sits down with Dale Jarrett to reflect on the 51-race winless streak that he snapped this season and his struggles in the Phoenix Chase race ahead of Talladega as he looks to secure a third Cup Series title. Larson reflects on…
“ In it for Ourselves”: Chase Briscoe Exposes Unspoken JGR Dynamic Amid Cutthroat Championship FightEssentiallySports · 26 h agoOct 25, 2026 | 3:29 PM EDT NASCAR, Motorsport, USA NASCAR Cup Series Race at Pocono Jun 22, 2025 Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Briscoe walks on pit road prior to the start of The Great American Getaway 400 at…
High-Profile NASCAR Agent Representing Denny Hamlin & Chase Elliott Charged With Assault on Government OfficialEssentiallySports · 33 h agoOct 25, 2026 | 8:39 AM EDT NASCAR, Motorsport, USA Cup Qualifying Nov 5, 2022 Avondale, Arizona, USA NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott 9 speaks with NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin 11 during qualifying at Phoenix Raceway…
Chevrolet Instructs Its Cup Series Fleet to Protect Kyle Larson at Dega With Blunt ‘Stage’ DirectiveEssentiallySports · 26 h agoOct 25, 2026 | 3:24 PM EDT May 3, 2026; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson (5) is introduced before the start of the 2026 Wurth 400 cup race at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images…
Chase Briscoe wins pole for Cup Chase race at TalladegaDeadspin · 45 h agoTALLADEGA, Ala. -- Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe will start from the same position he finished last year's Talladega Superspeedway Fall classic -- in front. The 31-year-old driver of the No. 19 JGR Toyota earned the pole position for…
11 richest NASCAR stars as Denny Hamlin, Danica Patrick and Kyle Busch net worths comparedAOL.com · 40 h agoDenny Hamlin is in the running for the NASCAR championship but how does his net worh compare to some of the sports biggest stars Denny Hamlin is chasing NASCAR Cup Series championship glory as he prepares for thee final few races of the…
Chase Briscoe Makes NASCAR History Ahead of Talladega Cup RaceHEAVY · 30 h agoChase Briscoe already knows what it takes to win at Talladega Superspeedway. Now, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver has added another accomplishment to his résumé at NASCAR’s biggest oval. And this one came before Sunday’s race even began…
Chase Briscoe wins pole for YellaWood 500 at TalladegaYardbarker · 2 days agoChase Briscoe's first pole of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season couldn't have come at a better time. Briscoe won the pole for Saturday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, a race he is the defending winner of, with a lap time of…
Chase Briscoe wins pole for Chase race at TalladegaOfficial Site Of NASCAR · 2 days agoNASCAR Cup Series Chase TALLADEGA, Ala. – Joe Gibbs Racing’s Chase Briscoe will start from the same position he finished last year’s Talladega Superspeedway fall classic – in front. The 31-year old driver of the No. 19 JGR Toyota earned…
Chase Briscoe snags 10th Cup career pole at TalladegaSpeedwayMedia.com · 2 days agoChase Briscoe snatched the Busch Light Pole Award for the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Saturday, October 24. The event’s starting lineup was determined through a two-round qualifying session. The first session featured 36…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 22, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$76.1K

Today$1.3K

This week$7.1K

At stake$9.6K

In the news1 headlines today, 4 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions

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