NASCAR Cup Series Champion

Kalshi Sports › F1 & racing Closes Nov 15 · $1.5K today · $507K traded · $261K at stake · prices read just now

The odds

33%Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson33%▲ 1
Christopher Bell19%
Denny Hamlin17%▲ 1
Chase Briscoe12%▼ 1
Ryan Blaney8%▼ 1
Joey Logano6%▲ 2
Tyler Reddick2%
William Byron<1%
Chase Elliott<1%
Connor Zilisch<1%
Ross Chastain<1%
Chris Buescher<1%

23 more

Bubba Wallace<1%
Alex Bowman<1%
Josh Berry<1%
Carson Hocevar<1%
Ty Gibbs<1%
Brad Keselowski<1%
Austin Cindric<1%
Ryan Preece<1%
Erik Jones<1%
Daniel Suarez<1%
Austin Dillon<1%
Zane Smith<1%
Ty Dillon<1%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.<1%
John Hunter Nemechek<1%
Cole Custer<1%
Cody Ware<1%
Todd Gilliland<1%
AJ Allmendinger<1%
Michael McDowell<1%
Noah Gragson<1%
Riley Herbst<1%
Shane Van Gisbergen<1%

How the odds have moved

Kyle Larson: 30% on Oct 20, 33% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Kyle Larson	33%	▲ 1	33¢	35¢	$2.86	496.5K
Christopher Bell	19%		19¢	21¢	$4.76	348.9K
Denny Hamlin	17%	▲ 1	17¢	18¢	$5.56	703.4K
Chase Briscoe	12%	▼ 1	12¢	14¢	$7.14	329.6K
Ryan Blaney	8%	▼ 1	6¢	12¢	$8.33	447.0K
Joey Logano	6%	▲ 2	6¢	7¢	$14.29	396.2K
Tyler Reddick	2%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	562.1K
William Byron	<1%			1¢	$100.00	260.8K
Chase Elliott	<1%			1¢	$100.00	302.0K
Connor Zilisch	<1%			1¢	$100.00	49.2K
Ross Chastain	<1%			1¢	$100.00	102.4K
Chris Buescher	<1%			1¢	$100.00	121.9K
Bubba Wallace	<1%			1¢	$100.00	233.4K
Alex Bowman	<1%			1¢	$100.00	54.8K
Josh Berry	<1%			1¢	$100.00	50.4K
Carson Hocevar	<1%			1¢	$100.00	307.7K
Ty Gibbs	<1%			1¢	$100.00	253.0K
Brad Keselowski	<1%			1¢	$100.00	88.8K
Austin Cindric	<1%			1¢	$100.00	67.3K
Ryan Preece	<1%			1¢	$100.00	56.9K
Erik Jones	<1%			1¢	$100.00	30.7K
Daniel Suarez	<1%			1¢	$100.00	52.5K
Austin Dillon	<1%			1¢	$100.00	61.7K
Zane Smith	<1%			1¢	$100.00	27.9K
Ty Dillon	<1%			1¢	$100.00	7.3K
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	<1%			1¢	$100.00	26.9K
John Hunter Nemechek	<1%			1¢	$100.00	13.9K
Cole Custer	<1%			1¢	$100.00	61.3K
Cody Ware	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.3K
Todd Gilliland	<1%			1¢	$100.00	70.00
AJ Allmendinger	<1%			1¢	$100.00	3.3K
Michael McDowell	<1%			1¢	$100.00	447
Noah Gragson	<1%			1¢	$100.00	293
Riley Herbst	<1%			1¢	$100.00	611
Shane Van Gisbergen	<1%			1¢	$100.00	11.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

NASCAR Cup Series ChampionKyle LarsonKalshi 33%Polymarket 30%3 pts apart

NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion

30%Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson30%▼ 1
Christopher Bell19%
Denny Hamlin16%▲ 2
Chase Briscoe12%

12 more

Ryan Blaney8%▼ 2
Joey Logano7%▲ 2
Bubba Wallace4%▲ 2
Tyler Reddick3%▲ 1
Carson Hocevar1%
Chase Elliott1%▲ 1
William Byron1%
Ty Gibbs1%
Daniel Suarez<1%
Austin Cindric<1%
Ryan Preece<1%
Chris Buescher<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: NASCAR Cup Series Champion NASCAR Cup, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell

Search ›

Denny Hamlin’s One Request Ahead Of TalladegaMotorBiscuit · 4 days agoDenny Hamlin has had a run of bad breaks in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver said he is asking for one clean race over the final three races. Hamlin talked about it on this week’s episode of his Actions Detrimental…
NASCAR title race blown wide open after Kyle Larson’s nightmare at PhoenixLentedesportiva · 4 days agoThe 2026 NASCAR Cup title was supposed to be Kyle Larson’s to lose, and in a single afternoon at Phoenix he nearly did, as both he and Denny Hamlin saw… Kyle Larson walked into Phoenix Raceway on Sunday 18 October 2026 with a 49-point…
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Wants ‘Old’ Denny Hamlin To Show Up at TalladegaMotorBiscuit · 4 days agoDale Earnhardt Jr. wants to see the “old” Denny Hamlin return for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Hamlin, a two-time Talladega winner and five-time drafting track winner, has failed to win on a drafting…
Can Denny Hamlin Turn His Chase Around? | NASCAR Standings Spotlightdailydownforce.com · 4 days agoJoin the conversation on socials The #1 NASCAR content creator on YouTube, Eric Estepp hosts Out of the Groove, a daily talk show covering news and trending topics in the NASCAR fan community. Kyle Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels have…
“Just Do Carson Things”- Denny Hamlin Admits Rooting for Controversial Cup Star to Wreck Field at PhoenixYahoo Sports · 5 days ago"Well, I saw Carson take a major swipe at the one mid corner and miss. As someone that was sitting in the lucky dog position, I was like, 'Please, wreck. Come on. Just Carson, I'm rooting for you. Just do Carson things here,'" Denny Hamlin…
Legendary Grassroots Team Behind Tony Stewart & Kyle Larson’s Success Announces Shock Racing ExitEssentiallySports · 4 days agoOct 21, 2026 | 11:44 AM EDT Tony stewart holds up trophy, Tony Stewart on stage holding up the championship trophy surrounded by his crew and teammates Keith Kunz Motorsports is shutting down at the end of the 2026 season. For decades the…
'They Don’t Like Losing to Each Other'- Kevin Harvick Dissects the Real Truth Behind Christopher Bell’s ‘Not Friends’ ClaimYardbarker · 4 days ago“They don’t like to do the same things. They aren’t friends. But I believe that there’s a lot of respect there for one another. It’s just they don’t like losing to each other,” Kevin Harvick offered that assessment on the Happy Hour…
Denny Hamlin was left praying for Phoenix wreck involving NASCAR villainDaily Express US · 4 days agoDenny Hamlin has admitted he was rooting for Carson Hocevar to wreck during the race at Phoenix. As Hocevar and Ross Chastain traded blows during Sunday's Freeway Insurance 500, Hamlin was hoping their increasingly aggressive battle would…
Denny Hamlin “Isn’t Shell-Shocked” Over Unfavorable Chase Stading After Phoenix RaceFirstSportz · 4 days agoJoe Gibbs Racing veteran Denny Hamlin has shared his thoughts on the challenging 2026 championship dynamic after the Phoenix race. Denny Hamlin (Via IMAGO) Joe Gibbs Racing veteran Denny Hamlin was expected to dominate the 2026 chase…
Happy Hour: Kyle Larson Finally Stumbles, Bubba Wallace’s Near Miss & Zane Smith’s FineFrontstretch · 4 days agoOn this week’s episode of Frontstretch Happy Hour, regular hosts Dalton Hopkins, Michael Massie and Landon Quesinberry (subbing for Bryan Nolen) are joined by Jonathan Fjeld, editor for NASCAR Roundtable and co-owner of The Racing Experts…
'He’s No Longer in That Photo'- Dale Jr. Risks Denny Hamlin’s Hate Urging Him to Abandon Conservative Next-Gen MindsetYardbarker · 4 days agoHamlin’s reputation at superspeedways was built on his ability to put himself in contention when the race reached its decisive moments. His experience, racecraft, and understanding of the draft made him a consistent contender at Daytona…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onESPN, Fox Sports, the Governing League

Trading closesNov 15, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$507K (5,533,106 contracts)

Today$1.5K

This week$13.7K

At stake$261K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kyle Larson wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.

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