Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Polymarket Sports › Soccer Closes Dec 31 · $27.1M today · $93.2M traded · $10.5M at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

70%Harry Kane
  • Harry Kane70%▼ 2
  • Kylian Mbappé22%▲ 9
  • Lamine Yamal8%▼ 5
  • Lionel Messi<1%▼ 1
  • Erling Haaland<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Ousmane Dembélé<1%
  • Vinícius Júnior<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
7 more
  • Achraf Hakimi<1%
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Rodri<1%
  • Pau Cubarsi<1%
  • Fabian Ruiz<1%

How the odds have moved

Harry Kane: 73% on Oct 20, 70% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Harry Kane 70% ▼ 2 70¢ 70¢ $1.42 $12M
Kylian Mbappé 22% ▲ 9 21¢ 23¢ $4.37 $11.5M
Lamine Yamal 8% ▼ 5 8¢ 8¢ $12.50 $9.8M
Lionel Messi <1% ▼ 1 0¢ 0¢ $9.4M
Erling Haaland <1% 0¢ $4.6M
Jude Bellingham <1% 0¢ $1.9M
Ousmane Dembélé <1% 0¢ $8.3M
Vinícius Júnior <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Michael Olise <1% 0¢ $4.4M
Declan Rice <1% 0¢ $992K
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia <1% 0¢ $7.4M
Vitinha <1% 0¢ $1M
Achraf Hakimi <1% 0¢ $78K
Bruno Fernandes <1% 0¢ $748K
Luis Diaz <1% 0¢ $469K
Lautaro Martinez <1% 0¢ $515K
Rodri <1% 0¢ $6.1M
Pau Cubarsi <1% 0¢ $1.3M
Fabian Ruiz <1% 0¢ $4.7M
Mohamed Salah <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Pedri <1% 0¢ $887K
Cole Palmer <1% 0¢ $682K
Federico Valverde <1% 0¢ $448K
Julian Alvarez <1% 0¢ $737K
Desire Doue <1% 0¢ $744K
Raphinha <1% 0¢ $696K
Dominik Szoboszlai <1% 0¢ $168K
Cristiano Ronaldo <1% 0¢ $474K
Rodrygo <1% 0¢ $96.1K
Enzo Fernandez <1% 0¢ $75.1K
Bukayo Saka <1% 0¢ $15K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?

73%Harry Kane
  • Harry Kane73%▲ 1
  • Kylian Mbappe18%▲ 7
  • Lamine Yamal8%▼ 6
  • Erling Haaland<1%
13 more
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%
  • Lionel Messi<1%▼ 1
  • Vinicius Junior<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Ousmane Dembele<1%
  • Nuno Mendes<1%
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Rodri<1%
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 30 · $3.5M today · $7.1M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Ballon d'Or, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions