María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
Install
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?
The odds
31%December 31
- October 3110%▼ 3
- December 3131%▲ 3
How the odds have moved
October 31: 18% on Oct 20, 10% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 6 PM ETOctober 31: 20% → 10%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETOctober 31: 27% → 20%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETOctober 31: 18% → 23%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $14.5K | ||
| October 31 | 10% | ▼ 3 | 6¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $19.3K |
| December 31 | 31% | ▲ 3 | 29¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $23.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CAATSA, Turkey
Search ›-
Cycling mums to tow toddlers 1,000km across TurkeyTwo British mothers are cycling across Turkey with their toddlers in tow to prove adventure does not end with motherhood. Vanessa Ruck, from Penallt in Wales, and Tori Williams from Cinderford in Gloucestershire are aiming to pedal 1,000km… -
Coal mine blast in northern Turkey kills 3, leaves 5 hurtBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A methane gas… -
Turkish opposition parties’ cash row growsFriction between the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the New Party (YP) seems unlikely to end any time soon. The YP, born out of a court battle between former CHP Chair Özgür Ö... Turkish opposition parties’ cash row grows The… -
Turkey Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026Turkey is a presidential republic in which one person is both head of state and head of government. Erdoğan appoints ministers and vice presidents, and the system was approved in a 2017 referendum and took effect after the 2018 elections… -
Turkish intelligence traces millions in Daesh network, 6 arrestedTurkish authorities arrested six suspects in an investigation coordinated with the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) that uncovered a Daesh financial network operating between Türkiye and Syria, prosecutors said Monday. The… -
Erdogan sacks senior adviser amid Turkey-Azerbaijan hijab rowSaudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan to hold security talks in Iran Trump ramps up Islamophobic attacks on Abdul El-Sayed Protecting minorities: A test for Syria's new political order Inside Israel's deepening ties with Bosnia's Serb… -
Cairo Builds Legal Case Against Turkey-Libya Maritime MemorandumForeign Ministry spokesman Nader Zaki said on Saturday, 24 October, that Egypt is working with international law experts to compile a comprehensive legal dossier on the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum. Speaking on the programme Al-Hekaya… -
China's Long March legacy through Turkish eyesTEHRAN, Oct. 25 (MNA) – This year marks the 90th anniversary of the victory of the Long March and the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Türkiye. Turkish scholars, students and political figures… -
Turkish Parliament set to debate Mecca deal billParliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee will begin deliberations on Tuesday on the Mecca Defense Alliance. The bill on the ratification of the alliance will be presented to lawmakers, including opposition members, who have argued that the… -
Turkish intel chief, others from Mecca alliance will visit Iran"As agreed, Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalın will participate in this meeting," said Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme… -
Iran to meet with Saudi, Pakistan, Turkey for security talksBrazil's Lula wins, Flavio Bolsonaro refuses to concede CENTCOM chief flies over Hormuz, says key routes clear of mines Protecting minorities: A test for Syria's new political order Inside Israel's deepening ties with Bosnia's Serb… -
Beyond NATO? Turkey’s New Defense Partnerships Reshape Eurasian GeopoliticsTurkey’s latest defense agreement with Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia could reshape military cooperation across Eurasia. On October 21, 2026, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed the Badr Memorandum of Understanding in Doha. It has…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions