Next Mayor of Johannesburg?

Polymarket Elections › State & local Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $355 today · $128K traded · $14.2K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

53%Helen Zille

Helen Zille53%▲ 3
David Makhura23%▼ 2
Frank Chikane7%
Lukhona Mnguni5%
Kenny Kunene5%▲ 1
Loyiso Masuku4%▲ 1
Herman Mashaba4%▲ 3
Dada Morero1%

How the odds have moved

Helen Zille: 53% on Oct 20, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Helen Zille	53%	▲ 3	53¢	56¢	$1.79	$52.7K
David Makhura	23%	▼ 2	18¢	32¢	$3.17	$3.9K
Frank Chikane	7%		6¢	9¢	$11.36	$29.2K
Lukhona Mnguni	5%		3¢	8¢	$11.90	$832
Kenny Kunene	5%	▲ 1	3¢	7¢	$14.08	$3.5K
Loyiso Masuku	4%	▲ 1	2¢	6¢	$15.87	$20.5K
Herman Mashaba	4%	▲ 3	1¢	7¢	$14.93	$15.8K
Dada Morero	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$1.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille, David Makhura

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$128K

Today$355

This week$128K

At stake$14.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Johannesburg following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Johannesburg City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South A

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.