Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2027 · $10.4K today · $468K traded · $212K at stake · prices read 19 min ago

The odds

88%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen88%▲ 1
Jean-Luc Mélenchon40%▼ 2
Édouard Philippe36%▲ 1
David Lisnard16%
Raphaël Glucksmann10%▲ 2
Jordan Bardella8%▼ 1
Gabriel Attal7%▲ 1
Bruno Retailleau6%
François Hollande6%
Dominique de Villepin5%▼ 1
Sébastien Lecornu5%▼ 1
François Asselineau5%

24 more

Éric Zemmour4%
François Ruffin4%▼ 3
Manuel Bompard4%
Sarah Knafo4%▲ 1
Bernard Cazeneuve4%
Juan Branco4%
Olivier Faure3%▲ 2
Fabien Roussel3%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
Ségolène Royal3%
Jean Castex3%▲ 1
François Bayrou3%
Clémence Guetté3%
Gérald Darmanin3%
Clémentine Autain2%
Élisabeth Borne2%
Yaël Braun-Pivet2%
Laurent Wauquiez2%
Carole Delga2%
Marine Tondelier2%
Mathilde Panot2%
Xavier Bertrand1%
Michel Barnier1%
Valérie Pécresse1%

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 90% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Marine Le Pen	88%	▲ 1	86¢	89¢	$1.12	$27.3K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	40%	▼ 2	38¢	42¢	$2.38	$27.6K
Édouard Philippe	36%	▲ 1	35¢	36¢	$2.78	$11.5K
David Lisnard	16%		16¢	16¢	$6.29	$21K
Raphaël Glucksmann	10%	▲ 2	9¢	12¢	$8.70	$13.2K
Jordan Bardella	8%	▼ 1	7¢	8¢	$12.50	$24.6K
Gabriel Attal	7%	▲ 1	6¢	9¢	$11.63	$8.3K
Bruno Retailleau	6%		6¢	6¢	$16.67	$4.1K
François Hollande	6%		6¢	6¢	$16.95	$17.4K
Dominique de Villepin	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.67	$2.1K
Sébastien Lecornu	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$18.18	$3.1K
François Asselineau	5%		4¢	6¢	$18.18	$1.9K
Éric Zemmour	4%		4¢	5¢	$21.28	$742
François Ruffin	4%	▼ 3	3¢	5¢	$20.00	$9K
Manuel Bompard	4%		4¢	5¢	$22.22	$7.3K
Sarah Knafo	4%	▲ 1	3¢	5¢	$19.61	$6.9K
Bernard Cazeneuve	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.64	$5.8K
Juan Branco	4%		3¢	4¢	$22.73	$4.7K
Olivier Faure	3%	▲ 2	2¢	5¢	$19.61	$6.2K
Fabien Roussel	3%		3¢	4¢	$24.39	$8.3K
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	3%		3¢	4¢	$27.03	$2.1K
Ségolène Royal	3%		2¢	4¢	$28.57	$6K
Jean Castex	3%	▲ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.83	$3.4K
François Bayrou	3%		2¢	3¢	$29.41	$4.4K
Clémence Guetté	3%		1¢	5¢	$21.74	$3.3K
Gérald Darmanin	3%		2¢	4¢	$25.64	$2.8K
Clémentine Autain	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.03	$6K
Élisabeth Borne	2%		2¢	3¢	$32.26	$6.7K
Yaël Braun-Pivet	2%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	$4.8K
Laurent Wauquiez	2%		1¢	3¢	$32.26	$921
Carole Delga	2%		2¢	2¢	$43.48	$11.3K
Marine Tondelier	2%		1¢	3¢	$37.04	$5.2K
Mathilde Panot	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	$1.9K
Xavier Bertrand	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$1.6K
Michel Barnier	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$3.3K
Valérie Pécresse	1%		0¢	2¢	$45.45	$3.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: French Presidential, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon

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Marine Le Pen launches French presidential bid as protests rattle the nationBreakingNews · 33 h agoFar-right leader Marine Le Pen, the frontrunner in next year’s French presidential election, formally launched her campaign yesterday with a promise to restore order and national confidence. Marine Le Pen launches French presidential bid…
Marine Le Pen begins ‘great battle for France’ with presidential campaign launchThe Irish Times · 39 h agoMarine Le Pen vowed to restore order to France and ensure the supremacy of French interests and law over international courts as she launched her campaign for the presidency as the favourite. Polls show support for the right-wing populist…
French presidential hopeful Philippe slips in new pollPOLITICO · 40 h agoThe former PM lost three points compared to Cluster 17’s survey from last month. This article is also available in: French PARIS — Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is losing ground to far-left challenger Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the…
Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right candidate, launches presidential bidThe Hindu · 31 h agoVowing to “restore the rule of law”, Marine Le Pen said French nationality will once again become a privilege that is either inherited or earned Marine Le Pen, Franceâs far-right candidate, launches presidential bid left Marine Le Pen at…
How French presidential hopefuls turn unrest into campaign ammo – RT reportsRT International · 3 days agoWhile right-wing firebrand and potential front runner Marine Le Pen blames collapsing state authority, her left-wing rival, Jean-Luc Melenchon, accuses the government of failing to hear the voice of the people. Nationwide protests began in…
More than 1,300 demo-goers arrested and 50 police hurt in violent French protests - as National Rally's Marine Le Pen to kick off presidential campaign with rally speechDaily Mail · 2 days agoPolice arrested 1,314 people in weekend protests across France, with 53 officers hurt in the clashes. The arrests occurred as violence broke out on the margins of mass demonstrations in major cities on Saturday over the high cost of…
'France must find greatness again': Far-right Marine Le Pen calls out Macron at campaign speechLBC · 2 days ago3pm - 6pm3pm to 6pm 3pm - 7pm3pm to 7pm The rally came just a day after over 400,000 people took part in nationwide protests which saw over 1,300 arrested French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen has called on her country to "find its…
Marine Le Pen calls for 'renaissance for France' as National Rally leader kicks off presidential campaign - after more than 1,300 arrested and 50 police hurt in violent protests across countryfreerepublic.com · 43 h ago“Marine Le Pen has called for a 'renaissance for France' in her presidential campaign speech, the day after violent protest broke out once more across the country. Earlier today, the police announced 1,314 people had been arrested in…
Marine Le Pen The Only Presidential Candidate to See Support Rise in Wake of French RiotsBreitbart · 5 days agoThe wave of Islamo-leftist unrest in France has apparently redounded to the benefit of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the only presidential candidate to see their poll numbers climb after the outburst of violence last weekend…
Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn@spikedonline · 5 days agoThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as…
Ukraine, PSG: Zabarnyi sends a strong message to Marine Le PenFrench Football Weekly · 4 days agoManu Tournoux is a passionate and knowledgeable football enthusiast with a special focus on French football. Born and raised in France, Manu discovered his love for the beautiful game at a young age and developed a deep understanding of…
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in Francemint · 5 days agoBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil…

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45%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen45%▲ 2
Édouard Philippe17%▲ 1
David Lisnard15%▲ 1

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
François Hollande3%
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesApr 18, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$468K

Today$10.4K

This week$64.2K

At stake$212K

In the news2 headlines today, 33 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resol

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions