Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.6K today · $111K traded · $13.9K at stake · prices read 7 days ago

The odds

>99%PSD

PSD>99%▲ 3
PNL<1%
USR<1%
UDMR<1%
AUR<1%
PSD + PNL<1%
PSD + USR<1%
PSD + UDMR<1%
PSD + AUR<1%
PNL + USR<1%
PNL + UDMR<1%
PNL + AUR<1%

20 more

USR + UDMR<1%
USR + AUR<1%
UDMR + AUR<1%
PSD + PNL + USR<1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR<1%
PSD + PNL + AUR<1%
PSD + USR + UDMR<1%
PSD + USR + AUR<1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR<1%
PNL + USR + UDMR<1%
PNL + USR + AUR<1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR<1%
USR + UDMR + AUR<1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR<1%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR<1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR<1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR<1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR<1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR<1%
Other<1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

PSD: 98% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Traded
PSD	>99%	▲ 3	100¢	100¢	$26.3K
PNL	<1%			0¢	$1.3K
USR	<1%			0¢	$2.4K
UDMR	<1%			0¢	$3.3K
AUR	<1%			0¢	$4.2K
PSD + PNL	<1%			0¢	$438
PSD + USR	<1%			0¢	$1.4K
PSD + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$11K
PSD + AUR	<1%			0¢	$4.5K
PNL + USR	<1%			0¢	$1.5K
PNL + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$997
PNL + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.2K
USR + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$1.3K
USR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.2K
UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.7K
PSD + PNL + USR	<1%			0¢	$1.3K
PSD + PNL + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$15.1K
PSD + PNL + AUR	<1%			0¢	$761
PSD + USR + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$1.2K
PSD + USR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$725
PSD + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1K
PNL + USR + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$1.2K
PNL + USR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$822
PNL + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.3K
USR + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.4K
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR	<1%			0¢	$1.1K
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$1.1K
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$903
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$895
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$845
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR	<1%			0¢	$921
Other	<1%	▼ 1		0¢	$17.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Romanian

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Romanian president: Russian role in sabotage unacceptableInterfax-Ukraine · 5 h agoRomanian President Nicusor Dan condemned any involvement of the Russian Federation in acts of sabotage on Romania's territory, calling such actions unacceptable and an element of a systematic hybrid war against Europe, he said on X on…
Romanian president condemns Russian sabotage attempt at weapons plantUkrainska Pravda · 5 h agoДолучайтеся до клубу УП! President of Romania Nicușor Dan has condemned any involvement of the Russian Federation in acts of sabotage on Romanian territory. Source: Dan on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda Details: Dan emphasised…
Black Sea drone threats push Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria toward closer tiesDaily Sabah · 5 h agoCooperation between Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria has become increasingly important for Black Sea security following a surge in drone attacks targeting commercial vessels, with experts calling for stronger regional defense coordination and…
Russian sabotage network believed to have caused Romanian fire, prosecutors sayStevens Point · 21 h agoBUCHAREST, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Romania’s Intelligence Service said on Monday it had identified a sabotage network coordinated by Russia, which it believed was responsible for a fire in September at an industrial site in ‌central Romania…
Romanian president calls alleged Russian sabotage plot a 'grave violation' of NATO member's securityThe Independent · 4 h agoRomanian President Nicusor Dan on Tuesday called an alleged Russian sabotage plot last month a “grave violation” of the NATO member’s sovereignty and security, at a time when many fear Moscow's war in neighboring Ukraine risks spreading…
Ukraine, Romania discuss development of energy interconnectors with capacity of nearly 1 GW – ShmyhalInterfax-Ukraine · 22 h agoUkraine and Romania discussed the development of electricity interconnectors, the use of gas corridors, and the expansion of cooperation in the field of gas production during the first onlinemeeting between Ukraine's First Deputy Prime…
Romania identifies Russian sabotage network thought to be behind industrial fireThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 16 h agoRomania's Intelligence Service said on Monday it had identified a sabotage network coordinated by Russia, which it believed was responsible for a fire in September at an industrial site in central Romania near a state-owned weapons…
Russian sabotage network responsible for Romanian fire near weapons site, prosecutors sayThe Independent · 11 h agoRussia has repeatedly denied the accusations Romania’s intelligence service has uncovered a sabotage network directed by Moscow, linking the group to a September fire at an industrial site near a state-owned weapons company. The EU and…
Romania’s Communist Past Reminds Us That The Left Uses History As A Tool@AmericanThinker · 2 days agoFor them—as for Democrats in America—history is not a record of our past; it is, instead, one more way to control the present and the future. Arnold Cusmariu | October 25, 2026 As we all know, traditional last names sometimes indicate the…
1 sailor dead and 3 missing after Russian drone strikes cargo ship in Black Sea off coast of RomaniaNew York Post · 4 days agoBUCHAREST, Romania — A drone hit and sank a cargo vessel in the Black Sea on Friday, killing one crew member and leaving three missing, officials said, in the latest attack on commercial shipping in the region that has raised fears of an…
Ukrainian, Romanian PMs discuss defense, energy, logistics@ukrinform · 3 days agoAccording to Ukrinform, Koretskyi reported this on Facebook. Both sides discussed Russia's attack on a civilian vessel off the Romanian coast, which killed one Ukrainian sailor, injured four others and left three missing. Six people were…
Koretsky discusses defense, energy, and logistics with Romanian PMInterfax-Ukraine · 3 days agoUkrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky has held a telephone conversation with Romanian Prime Minister Luca Niculescu. Among other topics, they discussed a Russian strike on a civilian vessel off the coast of Romania, which resulted in…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$111K

Today$1.6K

This week$111K

At stake$13.9K

In the news11 headlines today, 131 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). Al

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions