Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Polymarket Economy › Central banks Closes Dec 31 · $34.2K traded · $9.8K at stake · prices read 39 min ago

The odds

51%chance▼ 7

How the odds have moved

Yes: 40% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 9 PM ET48% → 62%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 24, 9 PM ET37% → 45%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Yes 51% ▼ 7 42¢ 60¢ $1.67 $34.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Christine Lagarde

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  • EUR/USD Forecast: Signal Ahead of Key Christine Lagarde StatementInvestingCube · 8 days agoEUR/USD is stuck in a tight range today, with investors focusing on last week’s macro events, the ongoing performance of the energy markets, and the ongoing protests in France. It is also wavering ahead of a relatively muted week in the…
  • Ready for a French test?: Five questions for the ECBCentral Oregon Daily · 4 days agoBy Dhara Ranasinghe and Stefano Rebaudo LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank meets on Thursday against a backdrop of upheaval in France and an Iran war that is keeping energy prices above $100, meaning inflation risks…
  • Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the fifty-fourth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial CommitteeDisruption Banking · 9 days agoChristine Lagarde’s statement at the IMF’s 54th IMFC meeting, 17 October 2026: euro area growth of 0.9% in 2026, inflation at 3.8% in September, September rate rise, digital euro pilot in 2027, and Pontes DLT. IMF Annual Meetings, 17…
  • Forex Today: British Pound struggles to benefit from hot inflation dataFXStreet · 6 days agoHere is what you need to know on Wednesday, October 21: Fİnancial markets remain relatively quiet midweek amid a lack of key macroeconomic data releases. Although the British Pound shows some volatility following the inflation data, it…
  • ECB says AI, greener economy help euro zone weather energy shockThe Lufkin Daily News · 6 days agoEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks during a press conference in Berlin, Germany, September 10, 2026. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse FRANKFURT, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy has weathered this year's energy shock…
  • Musk mulls megacapMarketScreener · 6 days agoPublished on 10/21/2026 at 07:19 am EDT - Modified on 10/21/2026 at 09:21 am EDT Oct 21 (Reuters) - It was hard to keep track of global markets from hour to hour on Tuesday, with Brent crude hitting fresh five-month highs before plunging…
  • Pound-to-Euro Forecast: GBP Hits 1.19 After UK Job, Wage SurpriseExchange Rates UK · 6 days agoThe Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate climbed on Tuesday as an unexpected fall in UK unemployment boosted Sterling. At the time of update, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1919, up around 0.4% since yesterday. The Pound (GBP) attracted support…
  • In China, ECB makes case for euro liquidity linesYahoo Finance · 6 days agoFRANKFURT, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank can strengthen the euro's global role and amplify the reach of its ‌monetary policy by providing liquidity safety nets to foreign ‌countries, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said on…
  • Euro weakens against British Pound as UK CPI data fuels expectations of imminent BoE rate hikeFXStreet · 6 days agoThe EUR/GBP cross weakens to near 0.8390 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The British Pound (GBP) attracts some buyers following hotter UK inflation data. Traders brace for the speech from European Central Bank (ECB)…
  • And now, should the ECB intervene?MarketScreener · 6 days agoThe French 10-year yield has broken through the symbolic 5% threshold for the first time since 2002. Published on 10/21/2026 at 11:19 am EDT Over 10 years after the eurozone crisis, will the ECB have to come to the rescue and save France?…
  • Morning Bid: Musk mulls megacapLexington Herald Leader · 6 days agoOct 21 (Reuters) - It was hard to keep track of global markets from hour to hour on Tuesday, with Brent crude hitting fresh five-month highs before plunging, which rippled through tech-focussed stocks. The crude reversal came after reports…
  • EUR/USD Signal: Remains in a Tight Range Despite France, Italy ProtestsDailyForex · 6 days agoSell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1150. Add a stop-loss at 1.1340. EUR/USD pair held steady as market participants remained concerned about France and Italy, where protests have continued to rise. It rose to 1.1237, a few…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions