Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
29%$1.75–$2.0T
- $1.75–$2.0T29%▲ 1
- $2.0–$2.25T19%
- $1.5–$1.75T19%▲ 1
7 more
- $2.25–$2.5T12%▲ 4
- $1.25–$1.5T7%▼ 2
- <$1.25T6%▲ 1
- $2.5–$2.75T3%
- No IPO by December 31, 20272%
- $3.0T+2%▼ 1
- $2.75–$3.0T1%
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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
The odds
95%Anthropic
- Anthropic95%
- OpenAI5%
How the odds have moved
Anthropic: 94% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | $441K | |
| OpenAI | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $441K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, OpenAI IPO
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OpenAI to Train Cutting-Edge AI 'Offline'; Anthropic Makes Same Decision, Impact on ChatGPT and Remaining LoopholesAn AI tasked with a practice problem to research a person could not find the answer and threw a question to an external chatbot through a gap in its containment box. This actually happened with an OpenAI model under training on September… -
UK commits £100M to AI biosecurity lab with OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMindEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia had record lobbying quartersIt was a busy summer for AI lobbyists. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia each had their highest-spending lobbying quarter between July and September, federal disclosures show. Nvidia spent the most of the group at $2.2 million, followed by… -
Wall Street urging Anthropic, OpenAI to do their IPOs this year ‘before things get crazy’ — here’s whyWall Street is telling Anthropic and OpenAI that they had better launch their blockbuster IPOs sooner rather than later – and it goes well beyond the risks of an AI bubble, On The Money has learned. The mounting worry among big investors… -
OpenAI, Anthropic face pressure to limit AI computing powerEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPTTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district… -
OpenAI offers discounts up to 90 percent to poach Anthropic's biggest customersOpenAI is poaching Anthropic's customers with steep discounts. Companies like Rippling, Replit, and DataCamp say they've cut AI costs by up to 90 percent after switching. Anthropic's growth has slowed, but OpenAI is trading its own margins… -
Is Anthropic Facing an Employee Exodus? OpenAI's Sam Altman Says 'This Is Not a Good Sign'Anthropic is facing fresh scrutiny over employee departures after two builders closely associated with Claude Code, Thariq Shihipar and Anthony Morris, announced their exits within a day of each other. Shihipar, who spent more than a year… -
What OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral and Meta actually ask in AI engineer interviewsPrepping for an AI engineering interview usually looks like this: twelve tabs of Glassdoor, a Reddit thread from 2023, three YouTube videos, a half-read paper, and no idea what this specific company will actually ask. So I went through 270… -
Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AICNBC Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AI -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
'Dear ChatGPT': 12-year-old wins top youth prize at Australian Poetry Slam – videoBlake Mackenzie, a 12-year-old from Newcastle, has won the top youth prize at the Australian Poetry Slam for his reflections on artificial intelligence. The winning piece, performed at the Sydney Opera House on Sunday night, covered…
Related markets
All ipos & deals ›Anthropic IPO by __?
Nov 28, 2026even chance by
- October 31, 2026<1%
- November 15, 20266%▲ 4
- November 30, 202661%▼ 4
2 more
- December 15, 202682%▲ 9
- December 31, 202682%▲ 5
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Nov 22, 2026even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 202673%▲ 6
- Before Jan 1, 202781%▲ 2
3 more
- Before Feb 1, 202789%
- Before Mar 1, 202792%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202794%▲ 2
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
62%$1.50–$1.75T
- $1.50–$1.75T62%▲ 5
- $1.75–$2.00T14%▼ 7
- $1.25–$1.50T5%▲ 3
5 more
- $2.00–$2.25T4%
- $2.25–$2.50T4%
- $2.50T+2%
- No IPO by December 31, 20272%
- <$1.25T1%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
7%chance
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
$1.53Tmedian
$750B$2.75T
Median $1.53TMiddle half $987.82B – $1.85T
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions