Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars)?
9.45%median
6.5%11.5%
Median 9.45%Middle half 8.76% – 10.17%
Install
Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars)?
The odds
14.64%median
11.5%16.5%
Median 14.64%Middle half 13.87% – 15.18%
How the odds have moved
Median: 13.84% on Oct 20, 14.64% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <12.5% | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | $15.87 | $1.6K | |
| 12.5% to 13.5% | 12% | ▼ 5 | 2¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $1.7K |
| 13.5% to 14.5% | 29% | ▲ 2 | 22¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | $5.4K |
| 14.5% to 15.5% | 47% | ▲ 12 | 42¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | $2.2K |
| 15.5%+ | 10% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $1.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Visa
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Court ruling fails to end wait for thousands of immigrants stuck abroad without visasGloria and Dustin Hoffman take a selfie with their kids. Gloria Hoffman hide caption Late last year, Dustin Hoffman and his wife Gloria started the paperwork to secure a visa for her to live in the U.S. The couple, along with their… -
AI tools speed up visa admin as demand risesVFS Global, a visa outsourcing and technology service provider that handles administrative tasks for governments, is using AI and automated tools to streamline visa application administration, including extracting information from… -
etisalat money adds Visa Direct services for international paymentsUAE-based digital wallet etisalat money has partnered with Visa to broaden international money transfer services. The collaboration will leverage Visa Direct, Visa’s global money movement platform, to support several international payment… -
Philippines launches e-visa in Dubai to attract more UAE touristsMon, Oct 26, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 14, 1448 | Fajr 05:05|DXB 31°C A senior Filipino diplomat is optimistic more tourists from the UAE will come and visit the Philippines with the introduction of electronic visa (e-Visa) system. Philippine… -
Russia, Ethiopia to discuss visa facilitation for tourists, businessmen — Russian envoyAccording to Russian Ambassador to Ethiopia Yevgeny Terekhin, the liberalization of the entry regime will be addressed depending on growth of reciprocal tourist flows and bilateral business contacts - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian… -
US visitor visa refusal rate for Koreans jumps to nearly 25%National US visitor visa refusal rate for Koreans jumps to nearly 25% Published : Oct. 26, 2026 - 17:58:54 Labor, welfare, health, environment: questions about what shapes everyday life The proportion of South Korean applicants denied US… -
Web Bot Auth vs Visa TAP: How to Verify AI AgentsCopy the signed request from Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol spec into a unit test, run it through an Ed25519 verifier, and it fails. Mastercard's Agent Pay example fails too. Both reuse a signature from an IETF test vector that signs a… -
Backpacker visa caps bad for business, says premierWA Premier Roger Cook has broken ranks with his federal Labor colleagues in criticising looming changes to working holiday visas. In a letter to Immigration Minister Tony Burke, Mr Cook said federal migration policy changes would lead to… -
Applying for a digital nomad visa? The paperwork that could get you rejectedHome » Travel » Applying for a digital nomad visa? The paperwork that could get you rejected Applying for a digital nomad visa? Here’s the paperwork South Africans need, and the documents that could get your application rejected. Digital… -
China updates visa application process for Indians, new rules now in effectChina will directly accept and process visa applications and consular legalization requests in India from October 26, ending the application services previously handled through visa application centers in New Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. In… -
Vocal MAGA Supporter Who Pushed Strict Immigration Policies Detained by ICE After Visa OverstayChristian commentator Samuel Sey was detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at an Ohio airport on 21 October 2026, officials said. The Ghanaian-born writer, who has defended President Donald Trump's deportation policies… -
Greece Will Revoke Golden Visas Over Hidden Rebates and Short-Term LetsThe minister announced no new legislation. His remarks nonetheless signal a clear change of emphasis. Greece’s program, among the most popular in Europe, is moving from a tool to attract property capital toward one judged by its effect on…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions