Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 7, 2027 · $292 today · $7.4K traded · $790 at stake · prices read 46 min ago

The odds

39%Isamaa
  • Isamaa39%▲ 2
  • Centre Party26%▼ 1
  • Social Democratic Party18%▲ 7
  • Reform Party13%▲ 1
  • EKRE4%
  • Parempoolsed1%
  • Eesti 200<1%

How the odds have moved

Isamaa: 52% on Oct 20, 39% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 9 PM ETIsamaa: 43% → 32%
  2. Oct 20, 11 PM ETIsamaa: 52% → 38%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Isamaa 39% ▲ 2 37¢ 47¢ $2.13 $2K
Centre Party 26% ▼ 1 25¢ 31¢ $3.23 $2.2K
Social Democratic Party 18% ▲ 7 10¢ 28¢ $3.62 $810
Reform Party 13% ▲ 1 9¢ 18¢ $5.56 $851
EKRE 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 $562
Parempoolsed 1% 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 $499
Eesti 200 <1% 0¢ 1¢ $497

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Estonia Parliamentary, Centre Party, Social Democratic Party

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions