Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 3 · $8K traded · $607 at stake · prices read 72 min ago

The odds

75%South Dakota
  • South Dakota75%▲ 1
  • New Mexico26%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

South Dakota: 87% on Oct 19, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
South Dakota 75% ▲ 1 71¢ 78¢ $1.28 $4K
New Mexico 26% ▼ 1 22¢ 29¢ $3.45 $4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Closer Senate, South Dakota, New Mexico

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  • The 2028 crop hits New MexicoPOLITICO · 3 days agoThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/24/2026 10:36 AM EDT With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Saturday morning. This is Ali Bianco in the driver’s seat. Only 10 days left until the…
  • South Dakota 2010 Election ResultsMultiState Elections · 2 days agoMultiState 2010 results › South Dakota Another state… Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts…
  • South Dakota mail-in voters want process preservedSDPB · 46 h agoAround 10,000 South Dakotans have asked for absentee ballots via mail. That’s about 22% of the ballots requested so far for early voting. President Donald Trump has been fighting for new guardrails and restrictions on mail-in voting. The…
  • The 2028 crop hits New Mexico for inaugural ‘Matanza’ rallyPOLITICO · 3 days agoThe “Fourth in the Nation Matanza Rally” is testing the appetite for a more Latino-specific cultural touchstone to round out the presidential candidate event rotation. 10/24/2026 11:19 AM EDT Prospective presidential candidates are known…
  • South Dakota District 4 House Candidate Emelia Enquist Discusses Property Taxes, Data Centers in WatertownNortheast Radio SD · 3 days agoNortheast Radio SD News – Watertown, SD - Emelia Enquist, a Democratic candidate for the South Dakota House of Representatives in District 4, joined Northeast Radio SD live in the Watertown studio to discuss her background, campaign…
  • The Roundhouse Report: Lawmaker wants New Mexico to cut investments tied to Russia, MuskSanta Fe New Mexican · 2 days agoSen. Jeff Steinborn, D-Las Cruces, center, speaks with Sen. Rex Wilson, D-Ancha, on the Senate floor on Friday, Jan. 23, 2026, at the state Capitol. A Democratic state senator is asking the New Mexico State Investment Council to cease…
  • Democratic presidential hopefuls pitch populist economics at New Mexico ‘matanza’Santa Fe New Mexican · 2 days agoU.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján, left, speaks with U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, right, and human rights activist Samia Assed, middle, during the Fourth in the Nation Matanza Rally on Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 at the Anderson Abruzzo Albuquerque…
  • South Dakota election polls reaching drastically different conclusions@dakotanews_now · 3 days agoSIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Election Day is right around the corner, with many key seats up for grabs. The races are heating up, and candidates are keeping score. However, polling is proving to be complicated with very different…
  • States join South Dakota in Mayday Health legal battle@dakotanews_now · 4 days agoSouth Dakotans can drop off unused and expired prescription drugs on Saturday as part of the DEA’s 31st National Prescription Drug Take Back Day. States join South Dakota in Mayday Health legal battle Children’s Home Society cuts ribbon on…
  • OPINION: In service to New Mexico — not a political partyabqjournal · 3 days agoI've sworn two oaths. Neither one was to a political party. Progressives in Washington, D.C., have spent a lot of money this year telling you who I answer to. So let me tell you myself. I was born in New Mexico and grew up in Albuquerque's…
  • Jackley: Gun suppressors ‘important’ in South Dakota@dakotanews_now · 4 days agoSouth Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors are more than just a Second Amendment issue—they are a major economic driver in his state. SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - South Dakota’s top prosecutor says firearm suppressors…
  • ‘Appalled’ and ‘betrayed’: Candidates for office in Southern New Mexico sound off of Project JupiterSanta Fe New Mexican · 3 days agoDoña Ana County residents listen to county commission candidates Susie Kimble, Daisy Maldonado and Julia Brown at Temple Beth-El in Las Cruces for a candidate forum Oct. 14, 2026. LAS CRUCES — The races for two seats on the Doña Ana County…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions