Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 21, 7 PM ETGordon Zhang: 78% → 89%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
Gordon Zhang
>99%
▲ 6
100¢
100¢
$4.9K
Bruce Kong
<1%
▼ 5
0¢
$1.2K
Robert Evans
<1%
▼ 1
0¢
$848
Barry Wosk
<1%
0¢
$809
Keenan Yang
<1%
0¢
$640
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly, Gordon Zhang, Bruce Kong
B.C. Votes: Richmond students 'elect' Conservatives in three of four ridingsRichmond News · 40 h agoRichmond students "elected" Conservatives in three out of four of Richmond's ridings while "electing" an NDP in the fourth riding in a simulated provincial election last week. In the Student Vote exercise, put on by non-profit Civix…
B.C. Votes: Conservatives sweep Richmond ridings, form majority government in B.C.Richmond News · 40 h ago“Sacha! Peter! Sacha! Peter!” chanted dozens of supporters at B.C. Conservative candidate Sacha Peter as he celebrated his victory as the newly elected MLA for Richmond Centre. Peter will join three other B.C. Conservative MLAs from…
B.C. Votes: Richmond candidates door-knocking on last days of campaignRichmond News · 4 days agoRichmond residents are voting in four ridings in Saturday’s provincial election — although one is shared with New Westminster. BC NDP Leader David Eby called the snap election for Saturday, Oct. 24 despite the fact a municipal election was…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions