Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $3.5K today · $19.3K traded · $3.4K at stake · prices read 30 h ago

The odds

99%Cadu wins
  • Cadu wins99%▲ 65
  • Allyson <3%2%▼ 29
  • Allyson 3-6%<1%▼ 33
  • Allyson 15%+<1%▼ 4
  • Allyson 10-15%<1%▼ 5
  • Allyson 6-10%<1%▼ 5

How the odds have moved

Cadu wins: 39% on Oct 20, 99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 4 AM ETCadu wins: 55% → 99%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETCadu wins: 37% → 28%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Cadu wins 99% ▲ 65 99¢ 100¢ $7.8K
Allyson <3% 2% ▼ 29 4¢ $25.00 $2K
Allyson 3-6% <1% ▼ 33 1¢ $100.00 $1.3K
Allyson 15%+ <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $3.2K
Allyson 10-15% <1% ▼ 5 0¢ $3.5K
Allyson 6-10% <1% ▼ 5 0¢ $1.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Norte Governor Election Second, Margin of Victory, Rio Grande

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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