#2 Spotify Artist in October?

Polymarket Culture › Music Closes Sat 7:59 PM ET · $1.6K today · $58.8K traded · $4.3K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

The odds

70%Rihanna
  • Rihanna70%▼ 22
  • The Weeknd19%▲ 12
  • Bruno Mars<1%
  • Michael Jackson<1%
  • Bad Bunny<1%
  • Shakira<1%
  • Taylor Swift<1%
  • Drake<1%
  • Billie Eilish<1%
  • Lady Gaga<1%
  • Ariana Grande<1%
  • Ed Sheeran<1%
2 more
  • Coldplay<1%
  • Justin Bieber<1%

How the odds have moved

Rihanna: 46% on Oct 20, 70% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 11 PM ETRihanna: 92% → 69%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 23, 11 PM ETRihanna: 57% → 66%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  3. Oct 20, 11 PM ETRihanna: 46% → 40%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Rihanna 70% ▼ 22 60¢ 79¢ $1.27 $32.2K
The Weeknd 19% ▲ 12 17¢ 20¢ $5.00 $22K
Bruno Mars <1% 0¢ $627
Michael Jackson <1% 0¢ $361
Bad Bunny <1% 0¢ $351
Shakira <1% 0¢ $351
Taylor Swift <1% 0¢ $413
Drake <1% 0¢ $353
Billie Eilish <1% 0¢ $351
Lady Gaga <1% 0¢ $281
Ariana Grande <1% 0¢ $281
Ed Sheeran <1% 0¢ $349
Coldplay <1% 0¢ $281
Justin Bieber <1% 0¢ $538

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Spotify Artist, The Weeknd, Bruno Mars

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KalshiCloses Sun 11:59 PM ET · $22.1K today

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  • Beyoncé83%▲ 13
  • Justin Timberlake68%▲ 40
  • Rihanna51%▲ 13
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  • Linkin Park40%▲ 15
  • The Weeknd30%
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  • Olivia Dean30%
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  • Miley Cyrus11%▼ 18
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  • Foo Fighters5%
  • Ariana Grande5%▼ 1
  • Bad Bunny4%
  • KAROL G4%
  • Oasis4%
  • Kid Cudi4%
  • Lil Nas X4%
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KalshiCloses Feb 15, 2027 · $15.9K today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions