Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by October 31?

Polymarket Finance Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $70 today · $8.2K traded · $3.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

38%↓$562.5B

Reaches $600B3%
Reaches $625B3%
Reaches $675B3%
Reaches $750B3%
Reaches $825B1%
Reaches $875B1%

Falls to $562.5B38%
Falls to $537.5B37%
Falls to $487.5B3%

How the odds have moved

Falls to $537.5B: 38% on Oct 20, 37% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
↑$600B	3%		1¢	6¢	$18.18	$1.2K
↑$625B	3%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	$1.6K
↑$675B	3%		1¢	8¢	$12.50	$1.5K
↑$750B	3%	▲ 1	0¢	7¢	$13.51	$655
↑$825B	1%		0¢	0¢		$912
↑$875B	1%	▲ 2	0¢	4¢	$25.00	$1.5K
↓$487.5B	3%		1¢	6¢	$18.18	$575
↓$537.5B	37%		1¢	72¢	$1.39	$158
↓$562.5B	38%		3¢	72¢	$1.39	$4

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: ByteDance

Search ›

ByteDance’s $15B AI Chip Push Hits A Supply WallTechBooky · 2 days agoSend it to someone who should read it. ByteDance may be ready to spend almost $15 billion a year securing the hardware behind its artificial intelligence ambitions, but money alone cannot manufacture the components it needs. The TikTok…
ByteDance launches Seedance 2.5 4K video model for film production · TechNodeTechNode · 2 days agoByteDance’s cloud platform Volcano Engine released Seedance 2.5 4K on October 23, targeting film and television production with higher-resolution video ByteDance’s cloud platform Volcano Engine released Seedance 2.5 4K on October 23…
ByteDance in Talks With MediaTek for Custom AI ChipsTechBooky · 3 days agoSend it to someone who should read it. ByteDance has already faced the difficulty of securing enough advanced AI hardware. TechBooky previously examined how its AI chip ambitions ran into supply constraints. A custom processor could…
The Hardware Ceiling: ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent Bet $35B on the RTX PRO 5500Forkast · 3 days agoByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have ordered $35B worth of export-compliant NVIDIA workstation GPUs, hitting a structural bottleneck where demand doubles the global production cap. Lena Park is an AI mind. So is every other reporter and…
Nvidia Receives Over $35 Billion in Chip Orders From ByteDance, Tencent, AlibabaMarketScreener · 4 days agoNvidia has received orders from ByteDance, Tencent and Alibaba Group for more than 3 million of its new RTX PRO 5500 graphics cards, with the total value exceeding $35 billion, Reuters reported... Nvidia Receives Over $35 Billion in Chip…
ByteDance Pushes Back on Claim That 55% of China's AI Tokens Go to Short-Form Dramas, Says Video Generation Is Just 10% of ComputeBigGo Finance · 4 days agoA dispute over the claim that "more than half of all AI token usage goes into short-form drama production" is playing out across China's artificial intelligence industry. The debate is widening on two fronts: criticism that the sample…
Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance Order Over 3 Million Nvidia Graphics CardsMarketScreener · 5 days agoTencent Holdings , Alibaba Group , and ByteDance have ordered over 3 million RTX PRO 5500 graphics cards from Nvidia valued in excess of $35 billion at list price, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing... Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance Order Over…
Axel Springer Pitched To Buy TikTok's European Arm, ByteDance Says No Formal TalksFree Press Journal · 4 days agoAxel Springer, the media group that owns Politico and The Telegraph, proposed acquiring a stake in TikTok's European operations. The pitch came from chief executive Mathias Dopfner, who has pushed for a change in the platform's ownership…
Architectural Breakdown: Integrating ByteDance deer-flow: Vector Memory Persistence Patterns for LonDEV Community · 5 days ago. Tagged with python, react, nextjs, webdev. Templates let you quickly answer FAQs or store snippets for re-use. Are you sure you want to hide this comment? It will become hidden in your post, but will still be visible via the comment's…
Nvidia China Demand Outstrips Supply as ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent Place Huge OrdersMoneyCheck · 5 days agoThree of China’s biggest tech companies have placed huge orders for a new Nvidia graphics card, Reuters reported on October 20. ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have asked for more than 3 million RTX PRO 5500 cards. $NVDA ByteDance, Alibaba…
ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent Just Ordered $35 Billion of Nvidia Chips24/7 Wall St. · 5 days agoChina's tech giants just placed chip orders so massive that Nvidia admitted it cannot guarantee filling them, and the stock barely flinched. The reason why reveals something surprising about where Nvidia's real growth story is headed…
Former Head of AI Products at Tencent and ByteDance Joins NeoSoul as CPOKuCoin · 5 days agoKuCoin Former Head of AI Products at Tencent and ByteDance Joins NeoSoul as CPO HuoXing Finance reports that the AI Agent trading project NeoSoul has announced today that Alan, former product lead at Tencent and ByteDance, has joined as…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onfe.secondmarket.com

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$8.2K

Today$70

This week$278

At stake$3.7K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ByteDance's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions