Serbian presidential election called by...?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $2K today · $13.7K traded · $1.8K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

Nov 16, 2026even chance by

October 316%▼ 10
November 3094%▲ 10

How the odds have moved

October 31: 27% on Oct 20, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
September 30	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$1.3K
October 15	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$6.2K
October 31	6%	▼ 10	3¢	9¢	$11.11	$4K
November 30	94%	▲ 10	90¢	97¢	$1.03	$2.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Serbian

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Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in SerbiaNPR · 33 h agoThere's a political earthquake in Serbia as student-backed movement wins parliamentary election, ending more than a decade of dominance by a Moscow-backed populist leader. Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in Serbia…
Serbian Americans head to consulate in Chicago to vote in Serbia's electionCBS News · 2 days agoOctober 25, 2026 / 9:48 AM CDT / CBS/AP Sunday was election day in Serbia, and hundreds of Serbian Americans from across the Midwest cast their votes in Chicago in the middle of the night. Hundreds of Serbian Americans who haven't voted in…
How a movement of students brought down Serbia's VučićBBC News · 41 h agoTheirs is a movement born from tragedy that began with students blockading streets and turned into almost daily protests and a national movement against corruption and government negligence. In just under two years the students have…
Serbian Americans in Chicago vote in critical parliamentary electionCBS News · 42 h agoCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
Joy and disbelief on Serbian streets as Vučić concedes election defeatbbc.com · 42 h agoThere were scenes of jubilation on the streets of the Serbian capital, Belgrade, after the country's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in Sunday's parliamentary elections. He was defeated by the Student List, a movement…
Serbia's veteran ruler Vučić concedes election to student-led protest movementBBC News · 43 h agoSerbia's long-standing leader Aleksandar Vučić has admitted defeat to the student-led protest movement in snap parliamentary elections. Preliminary figures provided by Serbia's election commission indicated a record high turnout, which…
Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić concedes defeat in fiercely contested parliamentary electionthe Guardian · 44 h agoVučić’s 12-year reign looks to have been ended by record turnout of voters in election provoked by student-led protests Serbia’s veteran leader Aleksandar Vučić has conceded defeat to the student movement, ushering in a seismic political…
Aleksandar Vucic concedes defeat in Serbia's parliamentary election, marking political shiftCBS News · 44 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 5:30 PM EDT / AP The long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that…
Early reports suggest record high turnout in Serbia electionsBBC News · 2 days agoPeople queue outside a polling station in Novi Sad, Serbia's second-largest city Early reports suggest Serbian voters have turned out in large numbers for the country's election, as a student protest movement attempts to end the rule of…
Serbia’s strongman leader Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in seismic political shiftCNN · 43 h agoThe long-serving strongman leader of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, conceded defeat on Sunday in an election that pitted him and his right-wing party against a diverse student-led opposition movement that spent two years protesting his…
Hundreds of Serbian Americans vote for parliamentary elections from ChicagoCBS News · 2 days agoSunday was election day in Serbia, and hundreds of Serbian Americans from across the Midwest cast their votes in Chicago in the middle of the night. One of those voters, Marko Teofilovic, joins Suzanne Le Mignot remotely. Hundreds of…
Serbia wakes up to new reality after student-led movement ousts Vučić – Europe livethe Guardian · 32 h agoHopes raised for a reset in relations with EU and other partners following the defeat of authoritarian president Serbian leader ousted by student movement in seismic election Serbia wakes up to a new reality this morning after a grassroots…

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Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

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Marine Le Pen45%▲ 2
Édouard Philippe17%▲ 1
David Lisnard15%▲ 1

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%
François Hollande3%
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
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Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
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Michel Barnier<1%
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Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

45%Gadi Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot45%▼ 11
Benjamin Netanyahu14%▼ 9
Naftali Bennett3%▼ 9

15 more

Avigdor Lieberman2%▼ 1
Yair Lapid1%
Benny Gantz1%
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Yair Golan1%
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Yossi Cohen1%
Israel Katz1%
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Amir Ohana1%
Moshe Feiglin1%
Yoaz Hendel1%
Nir Barkat1%
Yuli Edelstein1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$13.7K

Today$2K

This week$3.2K

At stake$1.8K

In the news47 headlines today, 618 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

On September 27, 2026, Aleksandar Vučić resigned as President of Serbia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Serbian presidential election is called by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An election is called when it has been declared under the relevant Serbian electoral, legal, or constitutional procedures, to take place on a specific date, and the date of the election has been publicly announced. A statement of intention to call the election will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Serbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Conservative Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions