Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 7:59 PM ET · $4.6K today · $86K traded · $5.9K at stake · prices read 3 min ago

The odds

37.63%median

30%60%

Median 37.63%Middle half 36.31% – 38.94%

How the odds have moved

Median: 44.86% on Oct 20, 37.63% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
<35%	<1%	▼ 3	0¢	0¢		$14.4K
35-40%	95%	▲ 3	95¢	98¢	$1.02	$17.1K
40-45%	2%	▼ 2	0¢	4¢	$22.73	$14.3K
45-50%	2%	▼ 1	0¢	4¢	$22.73	$16.1K
50-55%	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$12.5K
55%+	<1%			0¢		$11.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: United Serbia Vote Share, Serbia

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A leaderless revolution has swept Serbia. The world should be watchingthe Guardian · 9 h agoI saw a remarkable experiment take shape in Belgrade. Its lessons should be studied by other European countries struggling with unrest The images from Belgrade on Sunday night – people dancing and crying in the streets, while in Novi Sad…
Democratic wins in Venezuela, Serbia face structural challengessemafor.com · 16 h agoVenezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado greeted crowds in Caracas after nearly 10 months in exile, while student protesters powered the ouster of Serbia’s strongman leader after 14 years in power. Two emotionally charged…
Serbian journalist on the student movement ending Vucic's 14-year rulecnn.com · 19 h agoSerbian journalist Bozidar Milovac speaks to CNN's Paula Newton about the student-led movement that defeated longtime Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic after two years of anti-corruption protests. Serbian journalist on the student movement…
How student protesters won against Serbia's VučićBBC · 24 h agoCatch up on your favourite BBC radio show from your favourite DJ right here, whenever you like. Listen without limits with BBC Sounds. Use BBC.com or the new BBC App to listen to BBC podcasts, Radio 4 and the World Service outside the UK…
'The smell of freedom': Serbia's student movement celebrates election triumphNPR · 20 h agoA political earthquake in Serbia as a student-backed movement wins the parliamentary election, ending more than a decade of dominance by a Moscow-backed populist leader. 'The smell of freedom': Serbia's student movement celebrates election…
As students we never sought power – here’s how we reclaimed Serbiathe Guardian · 19 h agoAfter freedom, we want to give our people something radical: a normal, functioning stateTwo years ago, I harboured no political ambition whatsoever. I was a student at the faculty of technical sciences in Novi Sad, my home town, pursuing a…
The Guardian view on Serbia’s student revolution: from principled protest to powerthe Guardian · 20 h agoTwo years after the Novi Sad tragedy gave birth to a youthful political movement, Sunday’s remarkable election has taken the country into a new eraThis weekend it will be two years since the collapse of a shoddily constructed train station…
In Serbia, a very different student movement just ousted another European strongmanCNN · 23 h agoAnother one of eastern Europe’s authoritarian leaders has been vanquished by an upstart movement, with Serbia’s long-term president Aleksandar Vucic unexpectedly losing out to a student-led campaign. While young people elsewhere in Europe…
Serbia’s Student List preparing for talks on forming government despite no clear leaderthe Guardian · 22 h agoNon-hierarchical movement is seeking to ‘rebuild society’ in Balkan country after years of authoritarian rule Serbia’s triumphant but untested Student List movement is preparing to start talks on forming a government capable of reversing…
'A generation that doesn’t feel heard’: In Serbia, a student movement topples an authoritarian leadercnn.com · 20 h agoJournalist and student Božidar Milovac speaks with Paula Newton about a historic outcome in Serbia’s national election ... ‘A generation that doesn’t feel heard’: In Serbia, a student movement topples an authoritarian leader Journalist and…
Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in SerbiaNPR · 30 h agoThere's a political earthquake in Serbia as student-backed movement wins parliamentary election, ending more than a decade of dominance by a Moscow-backed populist leader. Student-backed movement leads to political shakeup in Serbia…
The youth of Serbia triumph against VučićVoxeurop · 3 h agoIn Serbia, the youth are declaring victory. The Student List won 140 of 250 seats (52.65% of votes) in the parliamentary elections on 25 October, roundly beating the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), led by former President Aleksandar…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

MeasuredOct 25, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Trading closesOct 27, 2026 8:11 PM ET

Traded$86K

Today$4.6K

This week$54.6K

At stake$5.9K

In the news63 headlines today, 619 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endors

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions