B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $224 today · $10.4K traded · $3.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

26%Aaron Gunn
  • Aaron Gunn26%▲ 6
  • Caroline Elliott20%▲ 10
  • Sheldon Clare13%▲ 9
  • Claire Rattée10%
  • Iain Black8%▼ 1
  • Stockwell Day6%▼ 1
  • Chip Wilson5%
  • Yuri Fulmer3%

How the odds have moved

Aaron Gunn: 24% on Oct 20, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 9 AM ETAaron Gunn: 16% → 26%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Aaron Gunn 26% ▲ 6 18¢ 34¢ $2.94 $3.6K
Caroline Elliott 20% ▲ 10 16¢ 24¢ $4.17 $1.7K
Sheldon Clare 13% ▲ 9 1¢ 24¢ $4.18 $477
Claire Rattée 10% 9¢ 11¢ $9.09 $1.4K
Iain Black 8% ▼ 1 5¢ 11¢ $9.35 $605
Stockwell Day 6% ▼ 1 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 $1.4K
Chip Wilson 5% 4¢ 6¢ $17.24 $565
Yuri Fulmer 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.41 $762

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: B.C. Conservative Party Leadership, Aaron Gunn, Caroline Elliott

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions