Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $4.4K today · $92.3K traded · $16.3K at stake · prices read 27 min ago

The odds

72%Yashar

Yashar72%▲ 9
Together61%▼ 1
The Democrats56%▼ 12
Yisrael Beiteinu51%▼ 3
Ra'am32%▲ 6
New Economic Party / The Reservists30%▼ 14
Shas27%▲ 2
Amcha Yisrael27%▼ 1
Otzma Yehudit26%▼ 5
Likud26%▼ 4
United Torah Judaism25%▼ 4
RZP-Zehut21%▼ 7

3 more

Joint List4%
Noam3%▲ 1
Blue and White2%

How the odds have moved

Yashar: 59% on Oct 20, 72% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yashar	72%	▲ 9	61¢	82¢	$1.22	$11.2K
Together	61%	▼ 1	57¢	64¢	$1.56	$2.3K
The Democrats	56%	▼ 12	31¢	82¢	$1.22	$3K
Yisrael Beiteinu	51%	▼ 3	21¢	81¢	$1.23	$1.7K
Ra'am	32%	▲ 6	31¢	33¢	$3.03	$26.2K
New Economic Party / The Reservists	30%	▼ 14	18¢	41¢	$2.44	$3.9K
Shas	27%	▲ 2	15¢	39¢	$2.56	$1.8K
Amcha Yisrael	27%	▼ 1	25¢	29¢	$3.45	$3.7K
Otzma Yehudit	26%	▼ 5	18¢	34¢	$2.94	$4.3K
Likud	26%	▼ 4	20¢	31¢	$3.23	$12.4K
United Torah Judaism	25%	▼ 4	23¢	26¢	$3.85	$3.3K
RZP-Zehut	21%	▼ 7	14¢	27¢	$3.70	$4.7K
Joint List	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.41	$3.8K
Noam	3%	▲ 1	3¢	4¢	$24.39	$9.5K
Blue and White	2%		0¢	4¢	$26.32	$499

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: The Democrats

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Obama returning as campaign "closer-in-chief" for Democratscnn.com · 4 days agoFormer President Obama is hitting the campaign trail this weekend. Just how are Democrats banking on his star power to get them over the finish line? CNN's Arlette Saenz has the details. Obama returning as campaign ‘closer-in-chief’ for…
Obama hits campaign trail to stump for Democrats as midterm election nearsBBC News · 3 days agoFormer President Barack Obama attacked the Trump administration over the Iran war and high consumer prices as he hit the campaign trail for Democrats ahead the nationwide midterm elections. On Saturday, the Democrat held a campaign rally…
Why Cook Political Report just shifted 19 more House races in Democrats' directioncnn.com · 4 days agoDana Bash is joined by Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report as the nonpartisan ratings outlet shifts 19 House races in Democrats' direction. She explains which races they moved and why - including which Republican incumbents are facing…
Thune weighs nightmare scenario for GOP as Democrats threaten to flip HouseFox News · 4 days agoElection forecasters see Democrats taking the House, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital he is confident Republicans will hold the chamber, and he won’t have to work with potential Speaker Hakeem Jeffries…
Elizabeth Warren confronted on Democrats accepting billionaire donationsFox News · 5 days agoSen. Elizabeth Warren was confronted on Democrats receiving donations from billionaires on Tuesday, as the senator has called for no billionaire money in politics. Elizabeth Warren confronted on Democrats accepting billionaire donations…
Climate group pours in midterms money for DemocratsThe Washington Post · 4 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. In an election defined…
Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley vie for NY-17 seat in northern suburbsCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 5:51 PM EDT / CBS New York Republican incumbent Mike Lawler and challenger Cait Conley are campaigning for the hotly contested seat in New York's 17th Congressional District. The district includes all of…
Warren gets defensive when pressed on Democrats accepting billionaire donationsFox News · 5 days agoSen. Elizabeth Warren was confronted on Democrats receiving donations from billionaires on Tuesday, as the senator has called for no billionaire money in politics. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., got defensive in a new interview as she…
Surging turnout, with Democrats voting more: key takeaways from early voting datathe Guardian · 4 days agoWith just 11 days until the US midterm elections, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reclaim Congress With just 11 days until the US midterm elections, early voting data is rolling in nationwide. Democrats need a net gain of four…
Woman in ad who said a Democrat endangers kids pleaded guilty to endangering kidsThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Republican woman in…
Government agencies are blaming the shutdown on Democrats. Ethics experts say it could be against the law.POLITICO · 3 days agoHandfuls of agencies posted statements to their websites Wednesday, alerting Americans that the government has officially shut down and that the "radical left” is responsible. The West Lawn of the Capitol and the National Mall stretch into…
Data Dive: Can a Democrat win statewide in Texas?NBC News · 6 days agoNBC News Data Dive: Can a Democrat win statewide in Texas?

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onmain.knesset.gov.il

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 7:59 PM ET

Traded$92.3K

Today$4.4K

This week$14.9K

At stake$16.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, incl

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions