Second-best AI Lab end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $467 today · $26K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

The odds

36%Anthropic

Anthropic36%▲ 3
Google36%▲ 1
Meta11%▲ 1
OpenAI10%▲ 4
Alibaba1%
SpaceXAI1%
Xiaomi1%
Moonshot1%
Z.ai1%
Baidu<1%
ByteDance<1%
Thinky<1%

9 more

MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
Nvidia<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	36%	▲ 3	36¢	44¢	$2.27	$4.4K
Google	36%	▲ 1	36¢	43¢	$2.33	$9K
Meta	11%	▲ 1	11¢	14¢	$7.14	$2.6K
OpenAI	10%	▲ 4	8¢	16¢	$6.45	$793
Alibaba	1%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	$581
SpaceXAI	1%		0¢	2¢	$55.56	$688
Xiaomi	1%		0¢	2¢	$66.67	$767
Moonshot	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$724
Z.ai	1%		0¢	1¢		$629
Baidu	<1%		0¢	0¢		$566
ByteDance	<1%		0¢	0¢		$492
Thinky	<1%		0¢	0¢		$476
MiniMax	<1%		0¢	0¢		$476
Mistral	<1%		0¢	0¢		$385
Meituan	<1%		0¢	0¢		$476
Tencent	<1%		0¢	0¢		$485
Nvidia	<1%		0¢	0¢		$433
DeepSeek	<1%		0¢	0¢		$600
Amazon	<1%		0¢	0¢		$482
StepFun	<1%		0¢	0¢		$510
Microsoft	<1%		0¢	0¢		$465

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Second-best AI Lab

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Tech › AI

Second-best AI Lab end of October?

71%Anthropic

Anthropic71%▲ 5
Google23%
Meta2%▼ 1

18 more

Alibaba1%
OpenAI1%
Xiaomi1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
StepFun<1%
DeepSeek<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Thinky<1%
Mistral<1%
Tencent<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
MiniMax<1%
Meituan<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Second-best AI Lab end of December?

35%Google

Google35%
Anthropic32%▼ 4
Meta17%

18 more

SpaceXAI7%▼ 1
Baidu6%
OpenAI5%▼ 1
MiniMax5%▼ 1
Meituan5%▲ 1
Thinky4%
ByteDance4%
Z.ai4%
Alibaba3%
Moonshot3%
Xiaomi2%
Mistral1%▼ 1
StepFun1%
DeepSeek1%
Amazon1%
Nvidia1%
Tencent1%
Microsoft1%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)

26.25%median

21.6%29%

Median 26.25%Middle half 25.44% – 27.27%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 26, 2026even chance by

October 2121%▼ 22
October 2237%▼ 27
October 2441%▼ 37

2 more

October 3178%▼ 5
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

73%Google

Google73%▲ 3
Anthropic25%▼ 5
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$26K

Today$467

This week$26K

At stake$1.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s ch

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company262.45+4.98%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company108.57−0.49%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company79.78−0.45%
GOOGLGOOGL · about the company
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company705.44−0.55%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company533.52+0.84%
NVIDIA CorporationNVDA · about the company217.09+1.38%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.