Annual Return: WTI vs. Brent? (2026)

Kalshi Finance › Commodities Closes Dec 31 · $70 today · $11.4K traded · $4.6K at stake · prices read 46 min ago

The odds

88%Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil88%▲ 3
WTI Crude Oil8%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Brent Crude Oil: 84% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Brent Crude Oil	88%	▲ 3	84¢	91¢	$1.10	12.0K
WTI Crude Oil	8%	▼ 1	4¢	11¢	$9.09	11.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC

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Crude oil price forecast as Brent hits $117 amid US-Iran war fearsinvezz.com · 3 days agoBuy Brent exposure (e.g., Brent crude futures or an ETF like BNO). The article points to a likely escalation targeting Iran’s oil export lifeline (Kharg Island) plus Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption—classic supply shock drivers…
Global crude oil prices hit six-month high on Middle East conflict, fears of US strikes on IranThe Business Standard · 2 days agoSaturday October 24, 2026 Global crude oil prices surged to a six-month high as investor anxieties mounted over potential US military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks alongside escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. Brent…
Trump's Iran showdown rattles Wall Street as oil prices spikeFox Business · 4 days agoFox Business Trump's Iran showdown rattles Wall Street as oil prices spike President Donald Trump rules out Iran negotiations as stocks fall, oil prices surge and Wall Street weighs growing Middle East tensions. Rising crude oil prices and…
Rupee Rises 3 Paise To 94.78 Against US Dollar In Early Trade, High Crude Oil Prices And FII Outflows Limit GainsFree Press Journal · 3 days agoMumbai: The Indian rupee appreciated marginally by 3 paise to 94.78 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, October 23, as the domestic currency remained under pressure from elevated crude oil prices and continued foreign…
Goldman Sachs Says Refiners See 'High Probability' Of Sharp Oil Supply Drop As Houthi Attacks Escalate — Crude Oil Prices Hit 6-Month HighStocktwits · 3 days agoCrude oil prices have climbed to a six-month high as escalating attacks and rising tensions in the Middle East add to concerns about energy supply disruptions. The latest escalation comes as fighting involving the Iran-aligned Houthis and…
Crude Oil Price Today: Brent Crosses $113 As Saudi Supply Risks, Libya Disruption Stoke ConcernsNews18 · 4 days agoBrent crude futures rose on Friday, extending gains after surging 4% to a five-month high in the previous session, as concerns over potential supply disruptions intensified following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and an outage at an oil…
Euro weakens against Canadian Dollar amid higher crude oil prices weigh on EUR/CADFXStreet · 4 days agoEUR/CAD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 1.5750 during European hours on Thursday. The currency cross has depreciated as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained strength, driven by a sharp…
Crude Oil Prices Today: Brent Crosses $111 As Fresh Attacks In Saudi Stoke Supply FearsNews18 · 4 days agoCrude Oil Prices Today: Crude oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent futures climbing above $111 per barrel, as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and escalating tensions in West Asia heightened concerns over global…
IMF's Krishna Srinivasan says India should prioritise inflation as crude oil price risks riseTradingView · 4 days agoHigher crude oil prices remain one of the biggest risks to Asia's growth outlook, but India's monetary policy should continue to focus on controlling inflation rather than rupee movements, according to Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the…
Oil prices hit five-month high and Dow falls 700 points over fears of Iran strikes, AI spendingNew York Post · 3 days agoStocks fell Friday as oil prices hit a five-month high over fears of escalations in the Middle East and traders remained concerned that tech companies might be overspending on AI. The Nasdaq traded roughly flat after suffering its worst…
Rubio turns to small Indian town as US faces high oil pricesBBC News · 3 days agoThe western Indian port town of Jamnagar is not a usual stop for foreign leaders, yet it featured prominently in US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent visit. So, why did Rubio visit the town? And, more importantly, why did he skip the…
Crude Oil Prices Jolt Markets: Sensex Dips Over 500 Points, Nifty Below 22,600Lokmat Times · 4 days agoMumbai, Maharashtra: Indian equity markets opened significantly lower on Thursday, with the Sensex falling over 500 points and the ... - Latest News. Find Breaking Headlines, Current and Latest business news at Lokmattimes.com Mumbai…

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Finance › Commodities

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

$106.08high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $106.08.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $10559%

Falls to $9522%
Falls to $908%

Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90

Finance › Commodities

Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 26, 2026?

$102.16median

$88.99$104.49

Median $102.16Middle half $101.29 – $102.76

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices tomorrow (Oct 27, 2026)

$4.26median

$4.24$4.33

Median $4.26Middle half $4.26 – $4.27

Finance › Commodities

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?

26%↓ $3,900

Traders see as low as $3,937.

Reaches $4,20010%
Reaches $4,3003%

Falls to $4,10092%
Falls to $4,00092%

Already reached: ↓ $4,200, ↓ $4,100, ↑ $4,200, ↑ $4,200, ↓ $4,100, ↑ $4,200

Finance › Commodities

Gold price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

$4,017median

$3,814$4,224

Median $4,017Middle half $4,007 – $4,028

Finance › Commodities

US imports Russian diesel by...?

Nov 18, 2026even chance by

October 313%
November 3083%▲ 1
December 3191%▲ 6

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onICE, Pyth

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11.4K (23,370 contracts)

Today$70

This week$1.4K

At stake$4.6K

In the news61 headlines today, 829 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If WTI Crude Oil performs above Brent Crude Oil for the period of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Crude OilCL=F · settles on its price101.82−1.40%
USOUSO · tracks it166.60−1.73%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions