Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%chance
Install
Who will visit the White House in 2026?
The odds
40%Mark Carney
- Mark Carney40%▼ 1
- Hakeem Jeffries33%▼ 1
- Abdel Fattah al-Sisi32%▼ 1
- Claudia Sheinbaum20%
- John Ternus19%
- Jaxson Dart15%
- Anutin Charnvirakul14%
- Abelardo de la Espriella12%
- Cristiano Ronaldo11%▲ 1
- Gavin Newsom8%
- Abiy Ahmed8%
- Lionel Messi8%
10 more
- Barack Obama6%
- Eric Adams6%
- Vladimir Putin6%
- Pope Leo XIV6%
- Hun Manet6%
- Jerome Powell6%
- Reza Pahlavi5%
- Joe Biden4%
- Bola Ahmed Tinubu4%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene2%
How the odds have moved
Mark Carney: 42% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Elon Musk | >99% | 18.3K | ||||
| ✓ Xi Jinping | >99% | 43.5K | ||||
| ✓ Bill Maher | 86% | $1.16 | 5.5K | |||
| Mark Carney | 40% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 7.0K |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 33% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 6.5K |
| Abdel Fattah al-Sisi | 32% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 4.7K |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 20% | 17¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 4.4K | |
| John Ternus | 19% | 15¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 16.4K | |
| Jaxson Dart | 15% | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 208 | |
| Anutin Charnvirakul | 14% | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 4.1K | |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 12% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.1K | |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 11% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.7K |
| Gavin Newsom | 8% | 6¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 4.4K | |
| Abiy Ahmed | 8% | 5¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 6.7K | |
| Lionel Messi | 8% | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 489 | |
| Barack Obama | 6% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.53 | 2.0K | |
| Eric Adams | 6% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 2.6K | |
| Vladimir Putin | 6% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 5.0K | |
| Pope Leo XIV | 6% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 5.0K | |
| Hun Manet | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 660 | |
| Jerome Powell | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 964 | |
| Reza Pahlavi | 5% | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.82 | 14.1K | |
| Joe Biden | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | 1.6K | |
| Bola Ahmed Tinubu | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 233 | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $38.46 | 3.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mark Carney, Hakeem Jeffries
Search ›-
Democratic socialists reportedly plan to pressure Hakeem Jeffries as far-left influence growsFormer Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss reports of the Democratic Socialists of America pressuring House Minority Speaker Hakeem Jeffries and shares his thoughts on the upcoming midterm elections. Democratic… -
Canada’s PM Mark Carney says that there couldn't have been a ‘worse time’ for Alberta separation voteCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed the Alberta separation vote on Oct 15 on a visit to the province. (Video: Associated Press.) ... Canada’s PM Mark Carney says that there couldn't have been a ‘worse time’ for Alberta separation… -
Hakeem Jeffries’ Miami Trip Lands Cuban-Owned Bakery in Political FirestormThe bakery later apologized for hosting the Democrats and denounced socialism. Jeffries and Eliott Rodriguez, who is running in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, went to a bakery in Pinecrest, a Miami suburb, on Friday, meeting with… - Hakeem Jeffries on 2026 Midterms, NY-17 and AffordabilityHouse Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicts Democrats retake the House in November, citing affordability and New York's tight NY-17 race. Explore Our Cities & Metro Areas (A-Z) Jeffries Predicts Democrats Retake House, Says NY-17 Race…
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Hakeem Jeffries Walks Into a Cuban Bakery in Miami and All Hell Breaks LooseHouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08) walked into a Cuban bakery in Miami last week hoping to help a Democrat win a congressional seat, but instead set off a political firestorm that has ended with two Cuban bakeries publicly… -
WATCH: Trump Gets Big Blow! Mark Carney Celebrates Alberta Win Amid Tariff WarThe Times of India - WATCH: Trump Gets Big Blow! Mark Carney Celebrates Alberta Win Amid Tariff War Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that plans in Ukraine’s Lviv region to honour the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and Roman… -
Hakeem Jeffries' Trip to a Cuban Bakery Did Not Go Well at AllThe owner of the bakery wanted to clarify that they’re proudly anti-communist: The backlash from the local Cuban community was fast and fierce because, well, Cuban Americans know quite a bit about the harsh realities of socialism. Things… -
WATCH: Mark Carney's First Parliament Address After Canadian Troops Die In Wainwright FireThe Times of India - WATCH: Mark Carney's First Parliament Address After Canadian Troops Die In Wainwright Fire Mark Carney delivered an emotional address after four Canadian Armed Forces members were killed and 39 soldiers were injured… -
‘TRUMP’S BIGGEST GOOF-UP!’: Abdul El-Sayed Unleashes At Canada Tariffs; Declares Mark Carney’s WinThe Times of India - ‘TRUMP’S BIGGEST GOOF-UP!’: Abdul El-Sayed Unleashes At Canada Tariffs; Declares Mark Carney’s Win State Bank of India is investigating a suspected exposure of customer data found on the dark web. A preliminary… -
Op-ed: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney must address human rights crisis in Türkiye during historic trade visitOutcome: UAE – Sudanese political activist released after 19 months Sign petitions and take action online to defend human rights. Türkiye: End the crackdown on LGBTI rights El Salvador: Demand that the Salvadoran authorities immediately… -
Hakeem Jeffries to campaign in Texas on behalf of Bexar County congressional candidate Johnny GarciaWASHINGTON — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is heading to Texas to campaign with Johnny Garcia, who is running in a redistricted San Antonio-area congressoinal seat that Democrats believe they can win, according to a person familiar… -
Alberta Rejects Separation From Canada, Mark Carney Welcomes ‘Clear Choice’Alberta voters reject the push for separation from Canada, with 77% backing unity in the province’s first referendum as Mark Carney welcomes the result Alberta voters reject the push for separation from Canada. Around 77% support remaining…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.