Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin? (Before 2027)
The odds
4%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 62.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bitcoin
Search ›-
Strategy Buys $22M in Bitcoin, Buys Back $193M of STRCStrategy bought 267 BTC for $22.1 million last week and repurchased $193.1 million of its STRC preferred stock, the company said on Monday. The Bitcoin treasury firm paid an average of $82,900 per coin, including fees, between October 12… -
BlackRock Files for 'Buffer' Bitcoin ETF as IBIT Draws $665M in a DayBlackRock has filed to launch a "buffer" Bitcoin ETF that would cap investors' gains in exchange for limiting their losses, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. The iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection… -
Abandoned Bitcoin? Wallet Targeted by Noah Doe Lawsuit Moves $33 MillionAnother long-sleeping Bitcoin whale has stirred, and this one is named in a lawsuit claiming its coins were abandoned. An address beginning with "13Coop" that had never sent a single coin since it was first funded on Sept. 11, 2013, moved… -
Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Oil and AI Fears Squeeze MarketsBitcoin continues to defy seasonal ‘Uptober” expectations, as macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on the digital asset. Bitcoin is hovering around $82,000 on Monday, up about 1% on the day, after tagging $83,000 early and handing some of… -
Strive Buys $335 Million in Bitcoin After Investors Pour In $369 MillionThe average price was about $82,803 per coin, meaning the stash was worth about $335 million, and the purchase lifts its holdings to 36,818 BTC, up from 32,773 a week earlier. That’s a total just north of $3 billion worth of Bitcoin at… -
Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRockU.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). IBIT pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily… -
Mt. Gox Pushes Repayment Deadline to 2027 With $2.8B in Bitcoin Still to DistributeMt. Gox's rehabilitation trustee has pushed back the deadline for repaying creditors of the defunct crypto exchange by another year, to October 31, 2027, according to a notice dated Friday. Trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi said the base, early… -
BlackRock seeks to shield bitcoin (BTC) investors from losses after Calamos fund weathers 50% crashWhile bitcoin BTC$82,936.07 lost more than half its value in the past year's selloff, investors in one Calamos Investments’ fund were spared much of the pain. The Naperville, Illinois-based firm's Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF –… -
Equity weakness could damp demand for bitcoin (BTC) after biggest ETF inflows in a month: Crypto DailyBitcoin BTC$81,392.72 dropped about 1.1% over the last 24 hours, ether ETH$2,381.34 fell 1.7% and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index lost roughly 1.6%, pulled lower by declines in Asian stocks and the rising price of oil. “Broader equity… -
Bitcoin mining offshoot loses Microsoft AI deal as power delay stretches into 2030sTechnology giant Microsoft MSFT walked away from a planned U.K. AI data center run by Nscale, a company spun out of bitcoin BTC$82,836.58 mining, after the local grid operator said it may not be able to power the site for a decade. The… -
Live updates: Bitcoin tags $83,000 and slips back as chip stocks lead a reboundTech futures bounced after last week’s 5.5% rout, and bitcoin followed them up before sellers knocked it back. Earnings this week put the AI trade to the test again. Oil prices have bounced from Asian session lows on fears of a fresh… -
Strategy (MSTR) on verge of golden cross, just weeks after bitcoin (BTC) did the same: Crypto DailyWeeks after bitcoin’s (BTC) price chart flashed a major bullish signal, Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed accumulator of the cryptocurrency, is about to do the same. The signal, a golden cross, occurs when a security’s 50-day…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 24, 2026?
38.8%median
38.35%39.05%
Median 38.8%Middle half 38.77% – 38.83%
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 4
- Margo Martin7%▲ 3
- Scott Jennings5%▼ 5
28 more
- Maria Bartiromo5%
- Elizabeth Pipko5%▼ 3
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Natalie Harp3%
- Kayleigh McEnany3%▼ 1
- Taylor Rogers3%
- Harrison Fields3%
- Katie Miller3%▼ 1
- Laura Loomer3%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Lara Trump2%
- Monica Crowley2%▼ 4
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Steven Cheung2%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%▼ 1
- Liz Huston1%
- Alina Habba1%▼ 1
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Kari Lake1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
33%December 31
- October 3110%▲ 7
- December 3133%▲ 9
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
28%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly28%▲ 6
- Scott Jennings7%▼ 6
- Kari Lake4%▲ 1
57 more
- Elizabeth Pipko4%▼ 1
- Danielle Alvarez3%
- Margo Martin3%
- Maria Bartiromo3%
- Alina Habba2%
- No new person2%
- Roma Daravi2%
- Katie Miller2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Harrison Fields2%
- Ben Ferguson2%
- Beni Rae Harmony2%
- Jason Miller1%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung1%▼ 1
- Sage Steele1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Liz Huston1%
- Natalie Harp1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Spencer Pratt1%
- Lara Trump1%
- Laura Loomer1%
- Jayme Franklin1%
- Erika Kirk1%
- Matthew Boyle1%
- Taylor Budowich1%
- Monica Crowley1%▼ 1
- Kush Desai1%
- Ari Fleischer1%
- Benny Johnson1%
- Matt Walsh1%
- Ben Shapiro1%
- Jack Posobiec1%
- Mike Cernovich1%
- Dan Bongino1%
- Kayleigh McEnany1%
- Taylor Rogers1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Katie Pavlich1%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%
- Pat Adams1%
- Kaelan Dorr1%
- Vanessa Broussard1%
- Cara Castronuova1%
- Mark Levin1%
- Logan Paul1%
- Jake Paul1%
- Eric Daugherty1%
- Erin Elmore Scavino1%
- Tulsi Gabbard1%
- Peter Doocy1%
- Sean Spicer1%
- Karoline Leavitt1%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio1%
- Kat Timpf1%
- Kaylee McGhee White1%
- George Santos1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.