Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance
Install
Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?
The odds
18%Dana White
- Dana White18%
- Sylvester Stallone16%
- Sean Hannity12%▼ 1
- Kid Rock11%▼ 1
- Lee Greenwood10%
- Elon Musk9%
- Reid Wiseman9%
- Dan Scavino8%▼ 1
- Bill Belichick6%
How the odds have moved
Dana White: 16% on Oct 20, 18% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana White | 18% | 17¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 14.0K | |
| Sylvester Stallone | 16% | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 739 | |
| Sean Hannity | 12% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 3.2K |
| Kid Rock | 11% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.1K |
| Lee Greenwood | 10% | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 5.9K | |
| Elon Musk | 9% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.4K | |
| Reid Wiseman | 9% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 1.4K | |
| Dan Scavino | 8% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 88.00 |
| Bill Belichick | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Presidential Medal of Freedom, Dana White, Sylvester Stallone
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All trump administration ›How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (10/18-10/24)
5.79median
114
Median 5.79Middle half 5.39 – 6.64
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%chance▼ 3
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 23, 2026?
38.7%median
38.05%38.75%
Median 38.7%Middle half 38.67% – 38.72%
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/18 - 10/24) (Oct 18, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026)
1.54median
05
Median 1.54Middle half 1.27 – 1.82
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
Dec 21, 2027even chance by
- October 314%▼ 3
- November 3033%▲ 1
- December 3160%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.