Settled49,527,000A day before, traders had a median of 50.38M
The last odds before it closed
49.63Mmedian
✓ Above 47.75 million98%
✓ Above 48 million98%
✓ Above 48.25 million98%
✓ Above 48.5 million98%
✓ Above 48.75 million98%▲ 1
✓ Above 49 million98%▲ 3
✓ Above 49.25 million98%▲ 2
✓ Above 49.5 million98%▲ 5
Above 49.75 million3%▼ 82
Above 50 million3%▼ 71
Above 50.25 million3%▼ 54
Above 50.5 million3%▼ 41
7 more
Above 50.75 million3%▼ 22
Above 51 million3%▼ 13
Above 51.25 million3%▼ 11
Above 51.5 million3%▼ 6
Above 51.75 million3%▼ 4
Above 52 million3%▼ 2
Above 52.25 million3%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Median: 50.38M on Oct 20, 49.63M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
Outcome
Last odds
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
✓ Above 47.75 million
98%
33.00
✓ Above 48 million
98%
✓ Above 48.25 million
98%
387
✓ Above 48.5 million
98%
12.00
✓ Above 48.75 million
98%
52.00
✓ Above 49 million
98%
604
✓ Above 49.25 million
98%
1.1K
✓ Above 49.5 million
98%
1.2K
✗ Above 49.75 million
3%
732
✗ Above 50 million
3%
1.8K
✗ Above 50.25 million
3%
2.1K
✗ Above 50.5 million
3%
2.0K
✗ Above 50.75 million
3%
444
✗ Above 51 million
3%
434
✗ Above 51.25 million
3%
218
✗ Above 51.5 million
3%
117
✗ Above 51.75 million
3%
15.00
✗ Above 52 million
3%
89.00
✗ Above 52.25 million
3%
16.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.