How high will unemployment get in 2026?
13%Above 4.5%
- Reaches 4.5%13%
- Reaches 4.8%9%
Install
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
The odds
8.6%high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8.6%.
- Reaches 5%90%
- Reaches 6%85%
- Reaches 7%71%
- Reaches 8%56%
- Reaches 9%46%
- Reaches 10%40%
- Reaches 12%28%
- Reaches 15%19%
How the odds have moved
Reaches 7%: 71% on Oct 20, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 90% | 87¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.7K | |
| Above 6% | 85% | 81¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 758 | |
| Above 7% | 71% | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 957 | |
| Above 8% | 56% | 52¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 1.8K | |
| Above 9% | 46% | 43¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 3.3K | |
| Above 10% | 40% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 3.3K |
| Above 12% | 28% | 25¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 1.6K | |
| Above 15% | 19% | 15¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.1K | |
| Above 17% | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 1.5K | |
| Above 20% | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
Most New Jobs Reported Last Year Were Revised AwayWhen first reported, the 2025 monthly jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs for the year, Steve Rattner reports. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less than reported. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members… - Was It a Good Jobs Report or a Bad One?A one-time tax on the super wealthy is an important step toward greater equality. How can we fund universal childcare, Medicare for All, and a green economy while reducing inequality? A new plan shows how taxing wealth and corporate…
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Hiring in September grew much less than expected, jobs report showsHiring grew much less than expected in September as a monthslong surge of inflation weighed on shoppers and rattled bond markets, according to the federal government's monthly jobs report. Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp… -
Arizona September jobs report: Flat statewide, but some regions struggleArizona lost just 300 jobs in September — basically flat. But Flagstaff is down nearly 4% annually, while Phoenix keeps growing. Here's a look inside the numbers. The fallout of the murder of 33-year-old Robert McCartney, a father-of-two… - When first reported, 2025’s jobs reports added up to 1.2 million new jobs. After revisions, the economy added just 116,000 — 90% less.I wonder how bad it actually is right now in 2016. The Strait of Hormuz is open, traffic, on average, is about 70% of what it was before the war against Iran started, but industry experts also say about 80% of the oil coming out of the…
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Sterling up after higher inflation: The British job report was overall mixed but rates are likely to rise next monthThe pound sterling has appreciated against most other major currencies in recent days after higher inflation than expected on 21 October increased further the probability of the Bank of England (BoE) hiking to 4% in November. This article… -
Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrinkJobless rate falls to 5% as employers cut 2,000 jobs in September Sacramento unemployment dips, but payrolls shrink - Sacramento apartment rents slip as seasonal softness sets in… -
Three ways a sync job reports success while reading nothingI keep a weekly job that copies tasks from ClickUp into my own dashboard. It is a small Python wrapper around a CLI that reaches an integration platform, and it publishes a report with the lists and tasks it found. On October 19 it… -
Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?Guardian journalism is independent. We earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more. An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude In a… -
Layoffs Fueled Spike in Unemployment Claims in Three Key Senate Race StatesOct 22, 2026 at 05:38 PM EDT Layoffs drove increases in unemployment claims in Texas, Ohio and Michigan earlier this month just as the three states are embroiled in crucial U.S. Senate races building up to the November 3 midterm elections… -
The truth about MLB’s payroll disparity problem — and how to potentially fix itThe Dodgers were never the bogeyman. MILWAUKEE — The Dodgers were never the bogeyman. Appreciate how rare and difficult it was to become the first team in a quarter of century to win back-to-back titles. And I can tell you from firsthand… -
78% of Indian students expect AI to create more jobs: ReportWhile artificial intelligence (AI) is helping students complete tasks faster, many Indian learners are concerned that it may be affecting how deeply they understand and retain information, according to a new global survey. The HP Futures…
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$282,917median
$175,000$375,000
Median $282,917Middle half $261,161 – $304,891
US retail jobs added this holiday season (September–December 2026)
496,000median
250,000650,000
Median 496,000
Maine lobster landings in 2026
74.2median
5095
Median 74.2Middle half 68.2 – 80.6
China unemployment rate in October (China UE Oct 2026)
5.19%median
4.5%5.7%
Median 5.19%Middle half 5.08% – 5.25%
Russia unemployment rate in September (Russia UE Oct 2026)
2.27%median
1.7%2.6%
Median 2.27%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.