Tesla total deliveries in 2026
1.82Mmedian
1.45M1.95M
Median 1.82MMiddle half 1.79M – 1.84M
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Tesla headcount in 2026
The odds
139,041median
115,000150,000
Median 139,041Middle half 135,616 – 143,158
How the odds have moved
Median: 139,478 on Oct 20, 139,041 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120000 | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 194 | |
| Above 125000 | 94% | 89¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 303 | |
| Above 130000 | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 4.1K | |
| Above 135000 | 80% | 75¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 2.6K | |
| Above 140000 | 43% | 39¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 3.7K | |
| Above 145000 | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 2.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla
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Exclusive / SpaceX-Tesla merger could face antitrust scrutinyCould the Tesla-SpaceX merger that Elon Musk floated this week pose antitrust problems? One former Justice Department official told Semafor that the risks are real. Antitrust regulators view such “vertical” mergers as pro-competition, the… -
Tesla is prepping a Cybercab onslaughtBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Tesla says it is preparing to launch its shiny gold Cybercab in new markets outside its home of Austin, Texas, in a bid to “literally take over every part of terrestrial… -
Tesla cuts capex forecast to about $20 BillionTesla faces intense market scrutiny as Nancy Tengler and Ross Gerber join Liz Claman to debate the automaker's autonomous future. Tengler analyzes the Optimus robot delivery timeline, while Gerber raises safety concerns about Cybercab… -
With earnings in rearview mirror, SpaceX-Tesla merger chatter takes center stageElon Musk told Tesla shareholders on Wednesday that, when it comes to a potential merger with SpaceX, he’d already “said everything that should be said.” Tesla’s head of investor relations told analysts before opening the call to their… -
SpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out OfElon Musk recused himself from the SpaceX-Tesla merger talks. His company’s SEC filing suggests that doesn’t mean much. SpaceX’s October 22 10-Q disclosed that any potential combination with Tesla “would be subject to further approval by… -
SpaceX-Tesla-merger-Ray WangAnalyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens CNBC Analyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens -
Sure, let’s smoosh SpaceX and Tesla together, who caresYes, of course there are pay package incentives in play for Musk. But that’s not all. Oh sure, SpaceX’s credit risk is pretty high because it’s about to borrow another $40 billion to spend on Nvidia chips, but who cares about that? SpaceX… -
The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom NarayanTom Narayan, lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX, takeaways from Tesla in Q3 and more. The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom Narayan -
Former Tesla board member on obstacles facing potential SpaceX mergerSteve Westly, founder and managing partner of The Westly Group and a former Tesla board member, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the obstacles facing potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, his take on Tesla's Q3 earnings, and more. Former… -
SpaceX now says potential blockbuster Tesla merger would need Elon Musk’s approvalSpaceX said Thursday its potential merger with Tesla will require controlling investor Elon Musk’s approval, even though the entrepreneur has recused himself from talks between his two companies because of conflicts of interest. Musk, the… -
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Watch CNBC's full interview with former Tesla board member Steve WestlySteve Westly, founder and managing partner of The Westly Group and a former Tesla board member, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the obstacles facing potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, his take on Tesla's Q3 earnings, and more. Watch…
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1.85Mmedian
1.45M1.95M
Median 1.85M
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.