Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
The odds
20%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
- Before Jul 1, 202712%
- Before Jan 1, 202820%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 7.3K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 4.8K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 12% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 12.0K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 20% | 19¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 9.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve, Chair
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Breitbart Business Digest: Wall Street Is Daring Kevin Warsh to Raise Interest RatesA Fed Hike Could Break the Market’s Fedamentalism Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh appeared at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok and reiterated his refusal to tell investors what the Fed plans to do… -
Two Cheers For Kevin Warsh's "Quiet" FedU.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Oct. 16, 2026. (AP Photo/Dhitaraht Dhanarahtsombat) Two Cheers For Kevin… -
The Latest Inflation Data Spells Bad News for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Stock MarketThe CPI rose at an annualized rate of 3.4% in August, prompting the Fed to hike rates for the first time in three years at its September meeting. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh also warned more rate increases might be on the way if inflation… -
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Will Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates in October 2026: Expert ForecastOctober 22, 2026 by Marco Santarelli If you're buying a home or thinking about refinancing, that mix matters more than the headline. Let's walk through it. Here's the short version. The Fed raised rates once in September and is expected to… - Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal ReserveRealClearMarkets Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal Reserve
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Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
West Virginia home prices outpace national growth, says Federal Reserve reportWest Virginia’s unemployment rate fell to 4% in September, below the national average, but year-over-year job growth remained flat as home prices rose 8% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing national growth, according to the Federal… -
Nexo: Federal Reserve Decisions Put Crypto Market Recovery to the TestAccording to Nexo’s analysis, bitcoin’s price trajectory depends largely on Federal Reserve policy and upcoming inflation trends. Continued growth could be sustained if interest rates are held steady or reduced, whereas hawkish monetary…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.